December 17, 2002
DPRK PROLIFERATION: 'THE REAL PROBLEM IS NORTH
KOREA,' NOT IRAQ
KEY FINDINGS
** According to Asian
writers, North Korea is a more severe 'threat to world peace' than Iraq.
** Observers worldwide
speculated on U.S. motives for such a 'first-class embarrassment' as the
abortive seizure of missiles aboard the North Korean ship on its way to Yemen.
** Most saw the DPRK's
'brinkmanship' as aimed at restarting dialogue with the U.S.
** Some criticize lack of
'coherent North Korean policy' in Washington.
MAJOR THEMES
Pyongyang is a 'reckless agent of weapons proliferation'-- Numerous dailies, especially in East Asia, cited
both the discovery of DPRK missiles on a freighter heading to Yemen and
Pyongyang's announcement it would restart its nuclear program as proof that
North Korea is an "extremely dangerous neighbor." Most predicted an "aggravation of
already tense U.S.-DPRK relations."
South Korea's conservative Chosun Ilbo criticized Seoul's
"one-sided appeasement policy" as helping Pyongyang's "continued
nuclear development and missile exports."
Hong Kong's independent South China Morning Post spoke for many
by saying that while the U.S. considers "Saddam Hussein a priority...Kim
Jong-Il's regime is a far more pressing problem."
Liberal papers blamed hidden U.S. aims for the 'embarrassing
political incident'-- Germany's Die
Tageszeitung said the "whole operation was meant as a sign of
strength" to prove the U.S. "is in charge," while a Belgian
daily called it a "warning" to other countries, especially China,
against proliferation. Israel's Ha'aretz
was irked that Washington granted "significant concessions on the issue of
non-conventional weapons" to Yemen in return for anti-terror
"cooperation." Others,
including Britain's Guardian, implied the U.S. allowed the
"diplomatic shipwreck" in order to "help the conservative,
pro-Bush candidate in South Korea’s imminent, close-run presidential
election."
Pyongyang's activities are an effort to force U.S. into
negotiations-- Asian papers called
North Korea's promise to resume operation and construction of nuclear
facilities a "clearly targeted provocation" of the U.S. Analysts in Tokyo and Seoul demanded
Pyongyang "immediately stop" its "extreme and dangerous
brinkmanship tactics." South
Korea's independent Joongang Ilbo termed the DPRK announcement a
"strong call for dialogue with the U.S." Several called for international cooperation
"to foil Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions."
Criticism of U.S.' 'starkly contradictory' policies-- Some dailies called U.S. policy on the DPRK and
WMD "confusing at best, crudely hypocritical at worst." A centrist German observer cast doubt on U.S.
anti-proliferation strategies because "the North Korean example
shows...those who have the bomb will be unassailable." Indonesia's independent Kompas
reflected widespread sentiment in asking why the U.S. is "moving to
threaten Iraq rather than North Korea," concluding the U.S. is
"pursuing...Iraq's oil riches," not WMD removal.
EDITOR: Ben Goldberg
EDITOR'S NOTE: This
analysis is based on 44 reports from 14 countries, over 12 - 16 December. Editorial excerpts from each country are
listed by most recent date.
EUROPE
BRITAIN: “North Korea’s
Missile Exports Hold A Lesson For Dealing With Iraq”
An editorial in the centrist Independent stated
(12/12): "The seizure...provides a
compelling illustration of how weapons of mass destruction and the vehicles
which can carry them can spread--and of the difficulties of dealing with both
the states which supply them and those which acquire them.... Why were the missiles being transported as
hidden cargo.... And why precisely does
impoverished Yemen need offensive Scud missiles? It cannot be ruled out that the
missiles were ultimately intended for someone else--al-Qa’ida perhaps, or even
Iraq? The interception of the vessel
will be advanced by Washington’s critics as further proof that the lone
superpower is behaving self-appointed global policeman.... North Korea today is what an Iraq with
weapons of mass destruction would be tomorrow--a state with the means to
blackmail its neighbours and supply those weapons to other countries.... But the real problem is North Korea. This latest incident confirms...that the
Pyongyang regime...is a reckless agent of weapons proliferation.... Pyongyang shelters behind its own policy of
blackmail and deterrence.... Although
there is no guarantee that the carrot-and-stick diplomatic approach long
pursued by the U.S. and its regional allies, together with pressure form its
neighbours China and Russia, will succeed in defanging North Korea, there is no
alternative."
“High Seizures”
An editorial in the liberal Guardian declared (12/12): "At first, the seizure...appeared
straightforward, if highly dramatic.
Here was incontrovertible proof, it seemed, of Pyongyang’s involvement
in illegal proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.... What a coup!
What a find! What a stunning
success for the U.S.-led campaign against the dark forces of the “axis of
evil." Or, alternatively: what a
stunt!.... First it was pointed out that
North Korea is perfectly within its rights to ship and sell arms...others do
it, too. Only Iraq, uniquely, is
constrained.... In Washington,
celebration of a watershed intelligence feat turned into fear of diplomatic
shipwreck.... The missile snatch of the
century had, it seemed, misfired. Did
the U.S. deliberately stage this incident to illustrate its new, self-given
right of pre-emptive action against perceived WMD threats?.... Was the U.S. trying to help the conservative,
pro-Bush candidate in South Korea’s imminent, close-run presidential election,
Lee Hoi-Chang? All is a misty
mystery.... But one thing is deadly
certain. Meaningful, high-level
engagement with Pyongyang is ever urgently required. Threats and provocations will only make
matters worse."
“Deadly Proof Of Terror War”
The mass circulation tabloid Sun editorialized (12/12): "When Bush branded Iran, Iraq and North
Korea an 'axis of evil' the chattering classes scoffed. But Bush’s warning was not just
rhetoric. Yesterday the world was the
proof of the threat presented by North Korea.... Yemen is an enemy of the whole world.... Yemen claims the missiles were for its own
defensive purposes. It that true, why
did they hide them under 40,000 bags of cement?
America must be sick it’s having to let Yemen keep them.... Is it too much to hope that all those who
apologise for Saddam and attack Bush and Blair will now admit they were
wrong? Are they so blinkered that they
cannot now see why the West has to purge the planet of the evil regimes that
threaten our futures? The war on terror
is most definitely not about the size of egos in the White House or Downing
Street. It is a fight between good and
evil--and good will win."
FRANCE: “An Embarrassed
Bush Administration”
Fabrice Rousselot opined in left-of-center Liberation
(12/13): “Is Bush concentrating on the
wrong target within the ‘axis of evil’?
In the last two days North Korea has reminded the U.S. of its existence
and placed America in a most embarrassing position. That of a superpower so obsessed with
changing Iraq’s regime that it has forgotten about priorities.... For the time being the U.S. seems to be having
a hard time leading a coherent North Korean policy. Some observers are wondering about
Washington’s decision to allow the North Korean Scud missiles to continue on
their route to Yemen without further investigation.”
GERMANY:
“New Threat, Old Strategy”
Henrik Bork wrote in center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung of
Munich (12/13): “North Korea’’s
announcement to re-activate the nuclear reactors it decommissioned in 1994 is a
clearly targeted provocation of the United States. Does North Korea plan to provoke a U.S.
military strike? On the contrary, North
Korea wants negotiations with the United States.... This is the most recent example of an old
North Korean tactic. It is called
strategy of escalation and worked perfectly in the past.... But a dialogue with North Korea is
possible. Bill Clinton gave evidence of
it...[and] North Korea’s new détente-oriented foreign policy and the reforms
for the opening of the country demonstrate this. Unlike his father, Kim Jong-il is dependent
on international money. Of course, in
the past, he presented himself often as a difficult interlocutor...but limited
progress in the treatment of a rogue state is still better than a blockade and
escalation, including the threat with nuclear weapons.”
“Those Who Have The Bomb”
Clemens Wergin judged in Berlin's centrist Der Tagesspiegel
(12/13): “The [security] strategy of the
Bush administration is based on the conviction that the classical policy of
containing WMD has failed.... Even
agreements do not keep some rogue states from acquiring and passing on
WMD. We could have the impression that
the Americans are now applying double standards. While North Korea, with its nuclear policy,
has thus far not faced serious consequences, Iraq is about to be attacked
because of its WMD. But such criticism
ignores the decisive difference between the two systems. North Korea has almost become invulnerable
because it is threatening its neighbors with nuclear weapons, and the Americans
cannot intervene on the basis of their new security doctrine. For Washington, this inactivity with respect
to North Korea is only a further argument to prevent a similar situation
elsewhere…. But it is still unclear
whether the new U.S. strategy will make the world safer.... The North Korean example also shows
this: Those who have the bomb, will be
unassailable.”
“Acting Tough”
Karim El-Gawhary pointed out in an editorial in
leftist Die Tageszeitung of Berlin (12/12): “The whole operation was meant as a sign of
strength. On the one hand, it was a
message for North Korea, which is working on nuclear weapons and, according to
President Bush, belongs to the ‘axis of evil.’
On the other hand, it underlined who has the power in the Middle East,
because the Spanish forces captured the boat after being ordered to do so by
the United States. The message is clear:
The United States is in charge here.”
ITALY:
“North Korea Reopens Its Nuclear Plants As Well As The Crisis”
Washington correspondent Ennio Caretto observed in centrist,
top-circulation Corriere della Sera (12/13): Yesterday, Kim announced that he would resume
his nuclear program.... It’s a challenge
for the super power (America).... The North
Korean dictator’s challenge...and Bush’s tougher attitude represent the most
serious consequence of the temporary seizure of So San ship’s load, 15 Scud
missiles. The U.S. administration did
finally hand the missiles over to Yemen... but its dispute with North
Korea...is still getting worse. In fact,
yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that Pyongyang ‘is the
principal cause of the missile proliferation on the earth, a problem that must
be dealt with.’ However, for the time
being, the American President doesn’t seem to have any intentions to open a
North Korean front on top of the Iraqi one.”
“Ship Full Of Scud Missiles Intercepted”
Washington correspondent Ennio Caretto wrote in
centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (12/12): “A cargo ship with 15 North Korean missiles
destined for Yemen, similar to the Iraqi Scud missiles, arose suspicions in the
United States that the missiles could be, in fact, aimed for Saddam Hussein or
bin Laden, and almost caused a diplomatic incident between Washington and
Sanaa, and made relations between the U.S. superpower and North Korea even more
tense.... The Bush Administration
modified its language (towards Yemen) but was instead very tough towards North
Korea.”
“U.S. Gaffe: Ship With Scud Missiles For Yemen Blocked And Then
Released”
Strategic/defense analyst Andrea Nativi noted in pro-government,
leading center-right Il Giornale (12/12): "The sensational seizure
by Spanish naval units of a ship from North Korea with a cargo of Scud
ballistic missiles aimed for Yemen--but which Washington obviously thought were
meant for Iraq--is turning into an embarrassing political incident. From a military point of view, the operation
was successful, but things are different from a political angle. The Yemeni foreign minister sent a very harsh
letter to the U.S. ambassador, explaining that the missiles are destined for
the Yemeni army and should be sent to Yemen right away.... Too bad that it is difficult to find
justifications when the buyer of the ballistic missiles is an ally that already
possesses that kind of weapon and that, in fact, has even better weapons (the
SS-21 missiles provided by Russia). For
many observers, it is difficult to forget that, at the present time, the main
producer, user and seller of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles is, in
fact, the United States.”
AUSTRIA:
“North Korea: An Embarrassment for Bush”
Foreign affairs writer Stefan Galoppi commented
in mass-circulation Kurier (12/14):
“North Korea’s regime certainly wasn’t shy about disclosing the facts.
It admits it has been enriching uranium for building nuclear weapons. It has
sent missiles, hidden under a few bags of cement, halfway around the globe. Now
it wants to reactivate three atomic reactors that – aside from energy - produce
large amounts of weapons-grade plutonium as well. Whatever an ambitious
terrorist may be looking for, Kim Il Yong can provide it – but apparently Bush,
the anti-terror warrior in the White House, can’t or won’t do anything about
the obvious threat.”
"Embarrassment"
Foreign affairs writer Markus Bernath commented
in liberal Der Standard (12/12):
"The Scud affair is taking some peculiar and outlandish
turns.... Washington, after all, is
faced with a first-class embarrassment here: Yemen gets to keep the missiles,
and even rogue states are apparently entitled to export weapons.... North Korea, the world's last Stalinist
regime gets away with admitting it is busily putting together a nuclear arms
program.... The point is, even the most
unrelenting critics of the Pyongyang regime are aware that a military strike
against North Korea is out of the question at this point. There's no way to predict Pyongyang's
reaction. U.S. troops in South Korea are far too vulnerable, and besides, the
timing just isn't right. The U.S. is
gearing up for a war in Iraq....and apparently Washington's 'preemptive
doctrine' applies only to some, but not to others."
BELGIUM: "North Korea Gets Aggressive"
Tristan De Bourbon opined in left-of-center Le Soir
(12/13): "North Korea is now being
aggressive. Its theory is the following:
Washington’s refusal to sign a non-aggression pact amounts to an aggression. Therefore, North Korea must develop WMD to
protect itself.... Confrontation is at
its peak. Pyongyang will stick to its
positions as long as American diplomacy does not demonstrate that it is willing
to begin a dialogue without precondition.”
“Multiple Targets Missiles”
Philippe Paquet observed in independent La
Libre Belgique (12/12): “Paradoxically,
this interception might be embarrassing for Washington.... Because, if this spectacular operation has
the advantage of catching North Koreans in the act of ‘proliferating,’ it also
has the disadvantage of putting the Americans against the wall. Indeed, how could the White House forgive
Pyongyang for what it continues to accuse Iraq of, i.e. representing a serious
threat for world security? Actually, the
interception of the So San seems to have to be considered a warning to
countries other than North Korea, as suggested by the timing chosen to
intercept the ship. The U.S.
Administration explained that it did not wait for the ship to get closer to its
destination in order not to upset the Yemeni authorities, whose cooperation it
needs to dismantle the al-Qaida networks in the region. But this argument is not convincing, since
Yemen was upset and immediately demanded that the missiles be delivered."
HUNGARY: "New Evil States Are Targets”
Senior columnist Hanna Szalay judged in influential Hungarian-language
business-oriented Vilaggazdasag (12/16):
“The news from Iran and Teheran about their nuclear capacity caused some
nervousness in the world. Iran’s
nuclear power plant plans generated only temporary tension in the U.S.-Russian
relationship, as long as North Korea’s announcement that it will reopen its
nuclear plants has brought Washington and Beijing closer.
The situation is that Pyongyang is blackmailing Washington with
the nuclear plant issue. North Korea
wants the United States to restart its oil-supply delivery it stopped in early
December. North Korea has the chance of
receiving oil only if it complies fully (with the requirements of the IAEA and
Washington). Because not only the IAEA
but China too is now a good partner of the U.S.
Beijing has unexpectedly announced to support the proposal of clearing
the Korean Peninsula of any nuclear weapons.”
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL:
"Silence, We're Fighting Terror"
Senior Middle East affairs analyst Zvi Bar'el
wrote in independent Ha'aretz (12/12):
"What is one to do with a state that allows you to fly helicopters
in its airspace, to shoot freely at suspects, and that promises to fight with
all its meager strength against al-Qaida activists? It deserves a prize: the right to possess
Scud missiles.... This is more than
simple cooperation. The U.S. forces have
been given almost carte blanche to act in a country that only partly controls
its territory.... Based on that logic it
can be assumed that, had Syria cooperated with the U.S. Administration against
terror, it would also had been able to import missiles with various
ranges. The attitude of the U.S., which
is not even expressing wonderment as to why Yemen needs ballistic missiles and
against which foe it wishes to protect itself; the lack of minimal condemnation
of the missiles' very acquisition and the seal of approval for the deal--all
those could constitute evidence of the strategic transformation the U.S.
Administration is going through. It
turns out that the war against terror involves significant concessions on the
issue of non-conventional weapons."
EAST ASIA
CHINA (HONG KONG SAR): "Beijing's Chance To Shine"
The independent English-language South China Morning Post
said in an editorial (12/14):
"North Korea's closest allies, China and Russia, have a rare
opportunity to show their worth as members of the international community.
Together, they have the diplomatic leverage to end an escalating security
breach in East Asia.... Pyongyang's decision
to rescind a 1994 agreement with the United States and resume operation and
construction of nuclear power plants is a frightening prospect. While it
desperately needs electricity, its secretive plutonium and uranium programs
point to as much interest in nuclear weapons as power generation. The US realized the escalating seriousness of
the situation and has embarked on an unprecedented push for North Korea's
neighbors and allies to pressure the isolationist nation. On Friday it emerged
that President George W. Bush had asked China, Russia and Japan to
help.... China has urged the US and
North Korea to resolve the standoff through talks. But Beijing, through its
diplomatic relationship with Pyongyang, holds a key to resolution that it must
use. By doing so, it may resolve the worst threat to security in the region
while proving its peace-brooking abilities on the international stage."
"North Korea: U.S.
Must Break Silence"
The independent English-language South China Morning Post
editorialized (12/13): "The world
community has been jolted from its complacency over North Korea's plight in the
most spectacular fashion. Pyongyang's
announcement that it will scrap a 1994 agreement with the U.S. and resume
operation and construction of nuclear facilities is an alarming wake-up
call.... The North says it will not
scrap its nuclear program unless the U.S. signs a non-aggression pact. The U.S., agitating to wage war to overthrow
Iraq's President Saddam Hussein, says it will reopen talks only on its
terms.... Yesterday's developments are
worrying and only the U.S. can resolve the situation. Washington must soften its stand and resume
dialogue. Mediating on behalf of the
international community, it can help the starving nation overcome its
humanitarian difficulties. North Korea
must similarly become more open to agreements."
"A Dangerous Regime"
The independent English-language South China
Morning Post editorialized (12/12):
"The price of peace is the multi-billion-dollar arms industry,
which generates enough revenue to maintain a medium-sized country. No nation has a monopoly on selling weapons,
although some would dearly like a bigger market share. Pacifists argue that the proliferation of
weapons spawns increased violence. Poverty-stricken
North Korea should therefore not be condemned for exporting its missile
technology. Where it is on shaky ground
is the people it sells it to.... North
Korea has already disregarded agreements it has made on weapons proliferation
and is believed to be exchanging the products of its missile program for
nuclear technology. The U.S. and its
allies in the United Nations consider Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein a priority,
but Mr. Kim Jong Il's regime is a far more pressing problem that needs urgent attention."
"On North Korea, Washington Is In
Charge"
Foreign Editor Peter Kammerer wrote in the
independent English-language South China Morning Post (12/12): "Presidential candidates Roh Moo-hyun
and Lee Hoi-chang can say what they like about South Korea's foremost foreign
policy issue, North Korea; the reality is that the U.S. speaks loudest and with
the most authority on the matter. Their
views, though, are of little immediate consequence while the U.S. and North
Korea are locked in a heated standoff over Pyongyang's admitted nuclear weapons
program.... Neither Mr. Roh nor Mr. Lee
has attempted to make political ground from the U.S. relationship. Anti-Americanism among South Koreans has been
growing steadily.... But whichever
candidate wins, Washington will retain a steering role in policy towards North
Korea."
JAPAN:
"Kim Jong Il Must Scrap Nuclear Program"
Business-oriented Nihon Keizai
editorialized (12/15): "The tension
on the Korean Peninsula has been beginning to rise since the DPRK's
announcement to reactivate its nuclear facilities to 'make up for' the U.S.'s
suspension of fuel oil supplies to the reclusive Stalinist state. The North's
resumption of nuclear development does not stand to reason, given the fact that
the U.S. stopped oil shipments to retaliate against the North's admission of
its nuclear program that indisputably violated the 1994 Agreed Framework. Even Russia and China, the North's allies and
friends, are opposed to North Korea's nuclear program. It must discard its nuclear
ambitions. Long isolated from the
international community, Pyongyang may not be fully aware of the post-9/11
world current. The U.S., which took a direct beating from the simultaneous
terrorist attacks, and other nuclear powers, including Russia and China, are
joining hands to counter terrorism and the proliferation of WMDs. The world
community will no longer yield to the North's brinkmanship. The North must
first and foremost scrap nuclear and other WMDs in a verifiable manner to
return to square one to resume talks with the U.S. Finally, we are hopeful that
rising anti-U.S. sentiment over a U.S. Army vehicle's killing of two South
Korean schoolgirls will not adversely affect close policy coordination between
the U.S., Japan and South Korea in dealing with the North."
"More DPRK Brinkmanship?"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri editorialized
(12/13): "The DPRK's announcement
of its immediate activation of a nuclear program poses a renewed threat to
world peace. The announcement is, in effect, tantamount to scrapping the Agreed
Framework the North signed with the U.S.
In October, Pyongyang told Assistant Secretary of State Kelly that it
had a secret program to enrich uranium to produce nuclear weapons, despite the
1994 accord. Pyongyang's latest hard-line
policy may be indicative of trying to provoke Washington into extending new
aid, as it did in 1994. If so,
Pyongyang's tactics should be seen as a typical example of brinkmanship. Members of the world community must form a
joint front to prevent the North from developing nuclear weapons."
"Nuclear Crisis Must Be Avoided"
Liberal Asahi observed (12/13): "The DPRK's announcement of its
reactivation of a nuclear program in the wake of the U.S. interception of a
North Korean ship carrying Scud missiles could lead to a crisis similar to the
1994 crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Pyongyang must immediately halt its brinkmanship that has caused one
crisis after another. The Kim Jong Il
leadership may be adopting a 'hard-line' stance in a bid to draw U.S. attention
to resuming dialogue. But such tactics
will not be at all effective in dealing with the Bush administration that is
determined to use power to curb power, if necessary. If Pyongyang wants to seek a peaceful
solution to nuclear and other disputes, it should abandon its nuclear
development."
"Nuclear Development Must Be Stopped"
Conservative Sankei editorialized (12/13): "The U.S., Japan and South Korea need to
join hands in preventing North Korea from 'recklessly' reactivating its nuclear
development program. Assistance from other countries is also necessary to foil
Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. The North's announcement...warrants Washington's
retaliatory measures against Pyongyang.
Only days ago, the U.S. and Spanish navies intercepted a North Korean
ship carrying Scud missiles in the Arabian Sea, an incident apparently
violating international law. Japan
should again realize the North is an extremely dangerous neighbor."
"DPRK: Dangerous State"
Conservative Sankei observed
(12/12): "The U.S. and Spanish
interception of the North Korean ship carrying 15 Scud missiles off Yemen in
the Arabian Sea was the first on-site detection of the North's long-rumored
practice of exporting more than 100 missiles to Middle East and African nations
during the last 10 years. Missile
exports are just another piece of evidence showing that North Korea is, indeed,
a dangerous state determined to pose a threat to world security. The missiles inspected reportedly were bound
for Yemen, which had previously imported similar missiles from North Korea. Given rising concerns that terrorists may
purchase weapons in Yemen, the North's export of missiles (to Yemen) could
become a destabilizing factor in international society. The North's missile exports violate the
Pyongyang declaration that Prime Minister Koizumi signed with Kim Jong Il. Can Japan negotiate sincerely and seriously
with the DPRK? We are also concerned
about South Korea's conciliatory 'sunshine' engagement policy toward the
North."
"U.S. To Apply Greater Pressure On
DPRK"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri's
Washington correspondent Hishinuma commented (12/12): "In the wake of the U.S. and Spanish
interception of the North Korean ship carrying 15 Scud missiles off Yemen in
the Arabian Sea, the aggravation of already tense U.S.-DPRK relations will be
inevitable. Washington is likely to ask
Seoul to join forces in applying greater pressure on Pyongyang."
INDONESIA:
“Commotion About North Korean Arms Escalates With Missile Issue”
Leading independent Kompas commented
(12/13): “The interception of the vessel
carrying Scud missiles in the Arabian Sea earlier this week has added to the
commotion over the North Korean arms issue.
It is increasingly clear that North Korea possesses dangerous weaponry.... It is becoming questionable as to why the
U.S. and its allies are moving to threaten Iraq rather than North
Korea.... It is indeed very likely that
the U.S. is pursuing economic and geopolitical interests in the broader world’s
political constellation. There has been
speculation that the U.S. is lured by the magnitude of Iraq’s oil riches.”
SOUTH KOREA:
“Three North Korea Strategies Of The U.S.”
Kim Kyung-won, former ROK Ambassador to the U.S.
and professor of Korea University, opined in independent Joongang Ilbo
(12/16): “What is the U.S. strategy
against North Korea’s plans to reactivate its nuclear facilities? Without resorting to military mobilization,
three strategies are possible. First is
a ‘regime change’ strategy. The U.S. may
induce North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear weapons by either ousting the
North’s leadership or attempting to change the nature of the North Korean
regime.... However, it is questionable
whether the U.S. can truly induce a regime change in the North.... The second strategy is to resolve problems
through negotiations.... For this
strategy to work, the U.S. needs to give up its longstanding stance that North
Korea’s abandonment of nukes is the prerequisite for dialogue.... The U.S. may adopt a strategy of pursuing
limited engagement and containment while maintaining the status quo. In other words, it may continue with private
sector exchanges while suspending government-level economic cooperation with
North Korea.... The third strategy would
prolong the North Korean nuclear issue.
The U.S. has no reason to rush to a resolution.... However, a real problem arises if North Korea
chooses not to give up its nuclear weapons in response to the three
strategies.... Instead of vaguely
repeating the need for a peaceful resolution, we must look closely at the U.S.
and the DPRK stances and try to find common ground.”
“The ‘North Wind’ No Longer Holds Sway”
Pro-government Hankyoreh Shimmun
editorialized (12/16): “North Korea’s
sudden announcement that it would reactivate its nuclear facilities is creating
political tension in the lead-up to South Korea’s presidential elections. Conservative media are fanning jitters of a
pending crisis on the Korean Peninsula....
Elections in Korea have always suffered as a result of last-minute
variables.... The 2002 presidential
elections are no exception. News of
U.S.’s seizure of a North Korean cargo ship carrying missiles to Yemen was
followed by North Korea’s announcement that it would rescind the 1994 Geneva
Agreement. It is not yet clear whether
the U.S. or North Korea was trying to use such astounding incidents to
influence South Korea’s elections....
Mature citizens do not allow parties to employ obsolete methods in an
attempt to secure more votes.”
“Issues of Capital Transfer And North Korean
Nukes Should Be Scrutinized”
Independent Dong-a Ilbo opined
(12/16): “The focus of the final TV
debate for presidential candidates scheduled for today should be the issues of
moving the nation’s capital and the North Korean nuclear program. Moving the seat of government to another
province entails enormous economic, social and cultural costs. The feasibility
and side-effects of the plan must be reviewed by the two leading candidates,
Lee and Roh, during the TV debate. Candidates
should not treat the North Korea nuclear problem as one of either ‘war or peace,’ thereby aggravating national
conflict as the safety of the country rests on this issue. Manipulating the people’s fear of war to gain
more votes is typical ‘old politics.’ The North Korean issue, also entangled in
the complex dynamics of international politics, requires deep discussion among
the presidential candidates.”
“Leaders of ROK, U.S., Japan, Busy Over North
Korean Nuclear Issue”
Moderate Hankook Ilbo observed
(12/16): “The leaders of ROK, the U.S.
and Japan are currently coordinating a peaceful resolution to the North Korean
nuclear problem, as agreed during the October summit in Los Cabos. This is the proper way to fundamentally
resolve the issue. Pyongyang should pay
close attention to the determination of the leaders to resolve the matter
peacefully while disallowing the re-activation of North Korea’s nuclear
facilities. We believe that differences
between Pyongyang’s call for a package deal and Washington’s demand that the
nuclear program be abandoned first can be narrowed through dialogue.”
“NK Should Not Unseal Nuclear Facilities”
Government-owned Daehan Maeil commented
(12/16): “North Korea’s announcement
that it would unseal and remove surveillance cameras from its nuclear plant
will have ripple effects greater than those produced by the halt of heavy fuel
shipments. It signals that the nuclear
crisis on the Korean Peninsula has ‘crossed the Rubicon.’ North Korea can no
longer hope for a peaceful resolution, as maintaining the freeze on the
Yeongbyon facility is the foundation for both the IAEA Nuclear Safety Agreement
and the Geneva Framework.... We urge
North Korea to, above all, accept President Bush’s statement that the U.S. has
no intention of attacking North Korea and then begin honest dialogue with the
international community on its enriched uranium program. Meanwhile, the U.S. should also present
justification sufficient for North Korea to abandon its stubborn attitude and
come to the negotiating table.”
“North’s Gamble Only Invites Self-Destruction”
Independent Dong-a Ilbo editorialized
(12/14): “Given the current situation in the world and in North Korea, the
North is not in a position to confront the international community. Nevertheless,
North Korea is daily issuing hard-line remarks while turning its back on
reality. It is regrettable that the
North does not seem to know what it is doing wrong, though the outside world is
well aware of its wrongdoings.... The
World Food Program (WFP) confirmed the possibility of some four million North
Korean children starving to death by next year.... Against this backdrop, North Korea asked the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to remove seals and surveillance
cameras at its nuclear facilities.
Consequently, the international community’s response must become more
hard-hitting.... North Korea should rid
itself of the illusion that South Korea will continue to generously extend
aid. It would be nothing more than wild
fancy for the North to expect the international community to make concessions
after being terrorized by its brinkmanship tactics.”
“North Korea And U.S. Should Resume Dialogue”
Pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun
editorialized (12/14): “After declaring
that it would resume its nuclear activities, North Korea demanded the removal
of the surveillance cameras IAEA installed at its nuclear facilities. This North Korean move does not mean that it
will promptly produce nuclear weapons....
It will be a considerable amount of time before weapons-grade plutonium
can be extracted from the facilities....
For this reason, the eruption of a real nuclear crisis is still a long
way off. The real problem is the new situation created by the disruption of the
Geneva Agreed Framework.... First of
all, North Korea should do away with its traditional brinkmanship tactics and
keep its nuclear facilities frozen as stipulated under the Geneva
agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. should
actively pursue dialogue with North Korea to put off the looming nuclear
crisis, instead of repeating the need for a peaceful solution.... The U.S. needs to do away with its oppressive
policy toward North Korea. It is
hypocritical for the U.S. to argue for a peaceful solution while leveling a gun
barrel at North Korea’s head.”
“A Second Nuclear Crisis Looming On The Korean
Peninsula”
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized
(12/13): “We don't know what's behind
Pyongyang’s decision to nullify the Geneva Accord. However, given the firm determination of the
international community --notably the Bush Administration--not to allow such
nuclear development, it is clear that if there is no dramatic change, the
Korean peninsula will be headed toward full-scale confrontation between the
North and the rest of the world.... This
North Korean statement has brought to a dramatic close the Kim Dae-jung
government’s five-year-long ‘Sunshine Policy’ of providing generous aid to the
North.... The ROK has no choice but to
join forces with the international community in pressuring the North to give up
its nuclear program.... In addition,
with the presidential election just a week away, the biggest task at hand for
presidential candidates is to present clear plans for solving this crisis.”
“North Korea Should Not Resume Its Nuclear Program”
Independent Joong-Ang Ilbo editorialized
(12/13): “In order to prevent further
escalation of tension on the peninsula, Pyongyang must immediately withdraw its
decision to lift its nuclear freeze, and dialogue between the U.S. and the
North and between North and South Korea should be promptly resumed.... The North Korean statement appears to be
Pyongyang’s strongest possible measure to counter the U.S. suspension of fuel
oil supplies, but carefully looking at the statement, we can read between the
lines that Pyongyang is making a strong call for dialogue with the U.S.... The issue is whether the Bush Administration
will go along with North Korean brinkmanship tactics. Taking into account the Bush Administration’s
attitude so far, it seems unlikely that Washington will do so
willingly.... The ROK, therefore, must
put forth its best efforts to induce the two countries to come to the
negotiating table and also explore ways to cooperate with China and Russia in
dealing with the North.”
“Specter Of North Korean Nuclear Armaments
Revived”
Independent Dong-a Ilbo opined
(12/13): “The North Korean announcement
that it would reactivate the operation and construction of its nuclear
facilities is tantamount to declaring that it refuses to abandon its nuclear
arms program, turning the Korean peninsula clock back to before 1994.... Pyongyang cited the U.S. suspension of heavy
fuel oil shipments as its reason for the decision. However, it is the North that violated the
Geneva Accord by pursuing a nuclear program....
Even though we oppose confrontation between the U.S. and the North
escalating into armed conflict, the time seems ripe for both the ROK and the
U.S. to do something about North Korea.”
“North Korea’s Dangerous ‘Brinkmanship’”
Pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun
editorialized (12/13): “In the belief
that the North’s extreme and dangerous brinkmanship tactics--as demonstrated by
its recent decision to lift its nuclear freeze--only heighten tension and
confrontation, rather than resolve problems, we urge Pyongyang to withdraw the
decision. As we have repeatedly pointed
out, both the North and the U.S. have breached the Geneva Accord. Thus the two countries must look back on
their past behavior and exert best efforts to resolve the current crisis.”
“‘Sunshine’ Missiles”
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized
(12/12): “We are witnessing that the
result of our government’s one-sided appeasement policy toward North Korea is
not corresponding changes in the North but continued nuclear development and
missile exports. Now that Pyongyang has
been caught red-handed exporting missiles following its clandestine development
of nuclear weapons, we must actively participate in international efforts to
find a fundamental solution to the problem of the North’s weapons of mass
destruction. In particular, the ROK must
strengthen its cooperation and alliance with the U.S. in addressing the North
Korean issue.”
“North Korea, Is This A Time To Export
Missiles?”
Independent Joong-Ang Ilbo noted
(12/12): “Following Pyongyang’s
acknowledgement of nuclear weapons development, the recent incident--in which a
North Korean cargo ship carrying 15 missiles was intercepted by Spanish
warships on the high seas near Yemen--is expected to send U.S.-DPRK relations
to a new low. Since the incident took place after the U.S. vowed to stop
international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD), we are extremely concerned about future developments on the
peninsula.... The North may argue that
its missile exports are a matter of sovereignty and a way to survive stepped-up
U.S. pressures--including the suspension of heavy oil shipments--after its
admission of a nuclear program....
However, such an act by the North is bound to fall under global
criticism, because it comes at a time when almost all countries in the world
are making every effort to eradicate international terrorism and deter the
spread of WMD."
THAILAND:
“Bush...Aready Has Saddam; Why Must There Be Kim?”
Café Dam said in top-circulation, moderately
conservative, English-language Bangkok Post (12/14): “Is it possible that the U.S. will attack
North Korea before Iraq? The question
arises from the U.S. justification that it has the right to pre-empt countries
that are developing weapons of mass destruction in order to defend
itself.... We have more evidence about
nuclear weapons in North Korea than we do in the Iraq case because North Korea
has just conceded it attempted to develop nuclear weapons. A Spanish ship intercepted a North Korea ship
and found parts of scud missiles which Pyongyang was shipping to Yemen.... This incident confirms that North Korea does
possess weapons of mass destruction whereas there is no hard evidence in the
Iraq case. I don’t believe the U.S. has
the legitimacy to launch a pre-emptive strike against any country simply
because it suspects that that country possesses the same weaponry it also
has. If its justification were to apply,
the U.S. then had a reason to attack North Korea in order to ‘disarm’ the
country. But nothing has been said about
North Korea and the U.S continues to be all set to attack Iraq.”
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: "Skidding On
Scuds"
An editorial in the centrist Indian Express stated
(12/14): "Inscrutable are the ways
of the powerful, and the starkly contradictory US policies on non-proliferation
at the present juncture has only added substance to this view. On the one hand,
the US has been insisting on pre-emptive use of force.... On the other, is the kid glove treatment of
North Korea.... Credible evidence has
also emerged from the US that Pakistan supplied nuclear weapons technology to
North Korea in return for ballistic missiles for nuclear weapons delivery
against India. At one end is the readiness to go to war against Iraq in the
name of counter-proliferation, at the other end is the permissiveness in
dealing with perceived allies. North Korean ballistic missiles supplies to
Pakistan, Yemen, Iran and other countries have been central to the rapid spread
of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in our region.... If the way the US handled the proliferation
challenges that emerged into public domain during the past two months is any
indication of Washington's commitment to its announced policies, then the world
is more likely to witness spread of WMD to non-state actors and terrorists in
future. Proliferation of WMD (including missiles), and promiscuous response to
proliferation, would only provide incentives for more proliferation either for
defense or for offensive strategies."
"Subverting Missile Non-Proliferation"
The centrist Hindu declared (12/13): "The seizure...of an unflagged ship
carrying Scud missiles despatched from North Korea to Yemen and its quick
release, following strong protests by the authorities in Sana'a, have come as
yet another illustration of the manner in which Washington's pursuit of
near-term objectives is subverting the goal of global
non-proliferation.... There have been
other credible reports--not officially denied by Washington though vehemently
refuted by Islamabad--that Pyongyang had supplied Pakistan with long-range
missiles in payment for the knowhow to produce nuclear weapons
material.... The U.S. has done little to
indicate that the problem will be addressed either by reinvigorating treaty
commitments in place or through punitive measures..... U.S. policy is confusing at best, crudely
hypocritical at worst."
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
CANADA: “Menace Of North
Korea Must Be Faced”
Montreal’s conservative English-language Gazette commented
(12/12): “Yemen has a right, the United
States has grudgingly acknowledged, to buy Scud-type missiles from North Korea.
And North Korea has a right to sell the things.... The Americans, and indeed all states, need to
come to grips at once with North Korea's global game of Russian roulette. If military action is impractical,
intelligence efforts are not; we can only trust that the U.S. and its more
useful allies--a group that does not include Canada--are working very hard,
indeed, in this field. Meanwhile, the whole panoply of diplomatic tools must be
used to tame the menace of North Korea's moral irresponsibility. Here, at least, Canada should be playing what
small part it can.”
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