January 8, 2004 TARGETING MUSHARRAF: 'ISLAMIC RADICALS' SEEK TO DESTABILIZE PAKISTAN

January 8, 2004

TARGETING MUSHARRAF: 'ISLAMIC RADICALS' SEEK TO DESTABILIZE PAKISTAN

KEY FINDINGS

** Moderate Pakistani media urge "exemplary punishment" for "attackers and their sponsors."

** Nationalist Pakistani papers speculate that an "external power" was involved in the attack.

** Indian writers reject any "careful distinction" between anti-India and anti-U.S. jihadis.

** Outside South Asia, observers label Musharraf "the only obstacle" to an Islamic takeover.

MAJOR THEMES

Musharraf's would-be assassins 'want to plunge Pakistan into anarchy'-- Liberal and centrist Pakistani papers stressed that "Pakistan and terrorism cannot co-exist," lauding Musharraf's "determined struggle against terrorism and...extremism." These writers blamed "financially powerful and weaponized" extremists for the attacks. Lahore's Daily Times stated that "a majority of Pakistanis support" efforts to "rid Pakistan of terrorism"; center-left Dawn claimed the attacks hold "the vast majority of moderate people to ransom." Writers from across the spectrum noted the "unjustifiable" damage to "Pakistan's image in the world."

Were 'hostile foreign agents trying to fish in troubled waters?'-- Rightist and Urdu-language dailies tended to accuse foreign "mischievous outfits" of targeting Musharraf. Nawa-e-Waqt alleged that because "FBI, CIA, MOSSAD, RAW and KHAD" agents are in Pakistan, it is "difficult to say with certainty that this was a job of internal elements." The Nation noted the "machinations of our inherently hostile neighbor" India; Islamabad's Pakistan Observer said the attacks were a "foreign-sponsored act to...create instability." Independent Din urged a "proper investigation and inquiry" to avoid a rush to judgment.

No more 'honeymoon' between Musharraf and 'jihadi elements'-- Indian analysts urged Musharraf to stop selectively cracking down on "jihadis who attack the U.S.," but supporting "those who hate India." The centrist Asian Age said Musharraf "is fooling himself" if he believes there is "room for compartmentalization" between anti-U.S. and anti-India terrorists. Others claimed many Pakistanis see Musharraf as "a puppet of the West" in the war on terror; leftist Aabshar accused "persons in Pakistan's security establishment" of involvement in the attacks on Musharraf. Indian nationalist broadsheets ironically backed Musharraf; Calcutta's Akhbar-e-Mashriq stated, "India should stand by Pakistan and its president."

Musharraf represents Pakistan's 'best hopes'-- Euro, Asian and Canadian writers said Musharraf's death would have "utterly disastrous" consequences for Pakistan. Without him, the country "may become a regime as fanatical as Afghanistan's Talibs," said one Russian paper. Though Musharraf is a "dictator who seized power," Spain's left-of-center El Pais expressed widespread sentiment that he is the "lesser of two evils" because "Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of a radical Islamist regime" if he fell.

EDITOR: Ben Goldberg

EDITOR'S NOTE: This analysis was based on 59 reports from 11 countries over 16 December 2003 - 7 January 2004. Editorial excerpts from each country are listed from the most recent date.

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Wary In Islamabad"

The nationalist Hindustan Times editorialized (1/3): "Given the history, it is unlikely anything of consequence will emerge from the investigations into the December assassination attempts on Musharraf. Indeed, before versions were coordinated, key ministers of the regime and the president offered divergent prognoses of the Christmas Day attack. It was meant to derail the upcoming SAARC summit, said the ministers. Wrong, removing him was the objective, not sabotaging SAARC, held the president. With such a basic gap on perspectives, we can be sure that only expedient answers will be forthcoming.... Jehadis, naturally, would want nothing better than to escalate to war or return to hostility with India. Then they can ply their trade best. For them it will be mission accomplished if they can take a crack at Vajpayee in Islamabad, for that will negate recent gains and may even cause war. They could find opportunities. For one, the PM's official residence in Islamabad (where Zafarullah Jamali does not live!), the proposed venue of the SAARC leaders' retreat, is well appointed for a terror venture if the extremists mean business. After his misconceived deal with the MMA, is Musharraf in any real position to offer them resistance to show he is serious about making progress with India? Prudence should be the watchword at SAARC on the question of the PM's security."

"Importance Of Musharraf In Betterment Of Indo-Pak Relation"

Calcutta-based nationalist Urdu-language Akhbar-e-Mashriq declared (1/3): "Twin attempts on the life of Pervaz Musharraf...proves, on the one hand that the dissidents are no more ready to tolerate the General and...on the other hand, the importance of Musharraf is being discussed and assessed in various countries including America and India. Simultaneously anguish and distress is also being expressed over these incidents. The U.S. fears if Musharraf becomes the victim of such attacks the rift between military and civil administration in that country may reach a point when extremist groups like the Taliban and al-Qaida would surely come to the fore. Under such a condition Pakistan's nuclear weaponry might fall into the hands of irresponsible entities putting the whole world in a dangerous situation.... The importance of Musharraf before India is that New Delhi during the past three to four years, has become acquainted with the General very well and this experience would be helpful in sorting out dispute between the two countries."

"Plot Against Musharraf"

Tamil-language pro-BJP Dinamani declared (12/29): "Pro-Taliban and pro-bin Laden forces in Pakistan have been openly opposing Musharraf rule, ever since Musharraf vowed to dethrone Taliban rule in Afghanistan, increase support to the United States and allow the American forces to use Pakistan.... The two recent attempts against Musharraf's life are to be considered as a challenge not only against his rule but also against Pak army.... Naturally the US is concerned about this and is also justified even if India is worried. It is the extremists, and not the religious fundamentalists, who want to change the Musharraf leadership. The rise of these extremists are dangerous not to India but to the whole of South Asia."

"Lest We Hang Separately"

Editor M.J. Akbar noted in the centrist Asian Age (12/29): "How close is policy to a heartbeat? To paraphrase a well-known adage: policy is a dish best eaten cold. A policy decision is an exercise in collective will, a marriage of two circles: one of the government and the other of the bureaucracy. All governments are temporary, or should be; institutions are permanent.... Is the latest attempt to bring normalcy between India and Pakistan vulnerable to President Pervez Musharraf's heartbeat? It may not be very polite to address such a question, but it has assumed a very real dimension after the last two assassination attempts.... The usual suspects are all on parade: disgruntled generals, as ever, are high on the list, and al-Qaeda is now alleged to be responsible for all that goes wrong.... I recall an interview that President Musharraf gave to the Toronto Globe and Star during his visit to Canada. When asked the inevitable question about Osama, the President was reported as having remarked that Osama could be anywhere, even perhaps in Rawalpindi. This must have been said facetiously, or in a half-bitter jest. And yet there may be a serious truth there. The power of Osama bin Laden is either overestimated or underestimated, depending on how you view it.... Is President Musharraf now convinced that all terrorist organizations have now placed him on the enemy list, or merely al-Qaeda? If he believes that there is still room for compartmentalization, then he is fooling himself. If the Americans are looking for Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, then Jaish and Lashkar are looking for Musharraf.... It is obvious that we live in troubled times, with some of the trouble created by President Musharraf's chief benefactor, President George Bush. There is much at stake in the coming Saarc Summit. A long season of discontent seems to be giving way to reasons to be giving way to reasons: 'seems' is as positive as we can rationally get in Indo-Pak relations. Good sense prevails upon South Asian when good sense guides India and Pakistan: they are the engines of the region. The nations of Saarc can decide whether it is in their shared interest to play dangerous games with one another or work together to challenge common enemies. The motto of this Saarc Summit seems obvious to me: If we don't hang together, we will hang separately."

"Shadow Over Musharraf"

The centrist Indian Express editorialized (12/27): "Two near-misses in 12 days on the life of a man as meticulously and strongly guarded as the Pakistan president raises very serious questions. The fact that twice terrorists have brushed his cavalcade invites suspicion that some persons in Pakistan's security establishment could be involved. Musharraf himself has once again preferred to blame Islamic extremists. Al-Qaeda's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has already accused Musharraf of ''betraying Islam''--presumably an allusion to his assistance to American military action against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Pakistan in general and Musharraf in particular stand at a significant juncture today. As mentioned, there is a crackdown on certain terrorist groups. Musharraf is also in the midst of negotiating a deal with the political class whereby he remains head of state till 2007, while ceasing to be army chief by end 2004. In addition, he set the cat among the pigeons a few days ago by hinting that Pakistan could set aside its insistence on the UN resolutions in any dialogue with India. With Prime Minister Vajpayee scheduled to attend the Saarc summit in Islamabad in the first week of January, the air is rife with attendant speculation about bilateral exchanges on the sidelines. The twin attacks on Musharraf's cavalcade may not jeopardize movement on all these tracks, but they could influence the priority and momentum now imparted to each of them."

"Under Dangerous Siege"

The centrist Hindu commented (12/27): "The attempt on Musharraf, the unelected President of Pakistan, the second in 10 days, is shocking for how close his would-be assassins came to accomplishing their mission. There is no doubt that ever since he aligned himself with the United States in the "war on terror", General Musharraf has antagonized several sections of people in his country. From his crackdown--under pressure from the Bush administration--on terror groups and Islamist radical organizations to his cooperation in a U.S. investigation against Pakistani nuclear weapons scientists for allegedly selling sensitive technology abroad, President Musharraf is perceived by hard-liners in Pakistan as no more than a puppet of the West. Caught between those in his own country who believe he has capitulated to a U.S. hegemonist agenda and his Western allies who think he has not made good on his promise to create a terror-free, modern Muslim state, President Musharraf is today a besieged leader. His brush with death twice this month will certainly win him sympathy from the West. But his narrow escape and the failure of Pakistani intelligence to detect and pre-empt the threats to his life underscore the General's steadily weakening hold over his country in the aftermath of 9/11. The Christmas Day attack on General Musharraf, which came soon after he announced his decision to step down as Army Chief by December 2004, raises several interesting questions for the future of Pakistan's domestic politics. While the agreement reached with the MMA gave the military ruler some political breathing space, there is no doubt that without the backing of his uniform, he will find his status and stock greatly weakened. The repeated attempts on his life might prompt him to rethink the decision. Given that Pakistan's present moves at rapprochement are guided by General Musharraf, his continuance in power has obvious implications for India. However, it will be a cardinal folly to hitch the bilateral wagon to General Musharraf's star. Naturally, the assassination attempt has cast a shadow over the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit. The summit is an important event in the SAARC calendar. The members of SAARC must ensure that the Islamabad summit is held as scheduled--provided they can get credible guarantees that their leaders are not at risk."

"Survival Instinct"

The nationalist Hindustan Times stated (12/27): "It now seems incontrovertible that the honeymoon between General Pervez Musharraf and jehadi elements in his country has come to an end. India has long been suspicious of claims that Mr. Musharraf has evolved from the general who trained the original Kashmiri militants in the Eighties to an Ataturk-like figure who recognizes Islamicism is a dead-end for his country. Today, as the two countries prepare for the SAARC summit in Islamabad and Mr. Musharraf escapes two attempts on his life in a fortnight, India has reason to lower its guard. The general has had an uneasy relationship with the jehadis ever since he abandoned the Taliban regime two years ago. Musharraf has launched a number of crackdowns on Islamic militant groups who target India. But the crackdowns have been half-hearted and short-lived. The Pakistani leader's calculation seems to have been: crack down on jehadis who attack the US, but support those who hate India. There is evidence that this careful distinction has been breaking down. The most notable one is the slow but steady gravitation of the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba into the orbit of al-Qaeda. Rather than threatening the coming SAARC summit, the two assassination attempts should be seen as providing a fillip to the event. The most positive method would be for the assassination bids to lead Mr. Musharraf away from the path he took during the Agra summit towards a more constructive and realistic approach to a final settlement of the India-Pakistan problem."

"A Challenge To Pakistan Army"

Amit Barah wrote in the centrist Hindu (12/27): "The assassination attempt on Musharraf on Thursday has come as a challenge to the Pakistan Army. The twin suicide attacks on Christmas Day reveal that the Army has miserably failed to protect its Chief of Army Staff (COAS). The fact that the Pakistani leader survived is, of course, crucial, but the fact that those responsible for his security allowed him to take the same route 11 days after a major assassination attempt simply cannot be overlooked. It is now incumbent on the Pakistan Army leadership to launch a crackdown on all kinds of 'jehadis' and their networks, even if they were to lead into the security network. Pakistan will no longer be able to have the liberty of distinguishing between "good" and 'bad' jehadis. The 'stage' for the attacks on the General was set by none other than Ayman Al-Zawahiri, considered the right-hand man Osama bin Laden. There is little doubt that the active promotion of 'jehadi' elements in Afghanistan and Kashmir by the Pakistani establishment has badly rebounded. For long, there has been debate on whether or not Gen. Musharraf and the Pakistani Army can turn the tap of militancy 'off' and 'on.' It is now clear that there is no one tap and the "supply" could be under the control of Al-Qaeda/Taliban elements. Evidently, the latest actions taken by the Pakistani Army in the tribal areas has rattled the 'jehadi' elements, who believed that they were immune from crackdown in a region where the writ of the Pakistani State has had a limited run. The Pakistan Army, which takes pride in its chain of command, has been presented with a fait accompli--acting against Islamist terrorists is part and parcel of protecting their Chief."

"Another Escape"

The English-language Hyderabad-based Deccan Herald opined (12/27): "Gen Musharraf is among the most protected leaders in the world now. But two attacks were mounted almost on the same spot and this does not bring much credit to Pakistan's security system. Gen Musharraf has himself said that there was no lapse of security and that there is no way to prevent suicide attacks even in the most secured areas and establishments. But the attacks raise legitimate concerns about the security arrangements for the SAARC summit to be held in Islamabad in January. While there is no doubt that the best security will be available to the heads of governments, the larger question of the increasing vulnerability of Pakistan to terrorist actions poses serious questions to the country's leadership.... The lesson which should not be lost on the leadership in Pakistan is that support and promotion of terrorism is a dangerous enterprise and one can never be sure when the chickens will come home to roost. Official sponsorship of terrorism had given a touch of legitimacy to sectarian militancy in Pakistan. By infecting society and vitiating it, it had weakened rule of law and the institutions that held it together. The hijacking of democracy by the military leadership provided a fertile field for extremism to grow. Gen Musharraf's assault on mass politics only helped religious parties to gain in strength."

"Musharraf's Life At Stake"

Pro-BJP Calcutta-based Bengali-language Bartaman stated (12/27): "Recent happenings prove that terrorists have become desperate to eliminate Musharraf since America and Pakistan have jointly launched a sustained drive against al-Quaida and the Taliban.... A large section of the Pakistani masses believes that Musharraf has taken part in the fight against al-Quaida by stooping to the US. They also feel, under the American pressure he has toned down his pitch over Kashmir with the objective of establishing peace with India.... A section of fanatics still exists within the Pakistani army, who thinks that despite himself being a Muslim, Musharraf has committed treachery with Muslims by taking steps against jihad activists in Afghanistan and started talking the contrary relating to the 'freedom struggle' in Kashmir. So, he needs to be ousted forthwith. It is an irony of fate that it is the same Musharraf, who once had been the chief protagonist of all anti-India activities and the principal guardian of terrorist forces is now compelled to stand by the US in combating separatists.... In fact, Musharraf's life is hanging on a thread at this moment."

"Oh Life Of Musharraf"

Urdu-language centrist Calcutta-based Azad Hind held (12/27): "It was nothing but a miracle that General Musharraf...escaped unhurt from two consecutive deadly attempts on his life.... On that very day high alert was sounded in America owing to the threat of Osama bin Laden's al-Quaida.... But attacks happened in Pakistan, though it was another story that Musharraf did not come to meet his end.... True it is that the one, whom God saves, cannot taste the kiss of death.... These attacks reveal that some internal or external forces are after the life of Musharraf. The President has created many enemies of himself.... Now these snakes, once kept under the sleeve of his garments, have begun to spread out their hoods to kill their master."

"May God Save Musharraf...From All Calamities"

Calcutta-based nationalist Urdu-language Akhbar-E-Mashriq commented (12/27): "Musharraf remains always under the shadow of adversities.... Only a few days are left for the SAARC summit. Musharraf's enemies may target foreign dignitaries during the summit.... In this situation India should stand by Pakistan and its President. It would be a great gesture if the Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee offers his good wishes to Musharraf and declares that he would always be with Musharraf as well as with Pakistan. This stance will make our heads high in honor."

"Attempt To Kill Musharraf"

An editorial in leftist Calcutta-based Urdu-language Aabshaar read (12/26): "The situation in Pakistan is again turning vulnerable. President Musharraf has come under attack for the second time.... This attack implies that the security arrangements for Musharraf have not been up to the mark. It has also been proved that Musharraf's political opponents are no longer ready to tolerate him and are on the way to eliminate him as soon as possible. The two provinces -- The Frontier and Baluchistan are under the rule of those people known as die-hard detractors of Musharraf's policy. The strength of the Taliban is on the rise in these two provinces and the administrations there remain totally inactive ... Musharraf is known as pro-America, whereas Muttahida Majlis Amal i.e. the alliance ruling over two border provinces is said to be supporters of Taliban. As such, the conflicts between the two sides are sure to leave its sequel on international platform creating anxious moments for leaders like President Bush.... The American army, present in Afghanistan can take any step any moment. CIA is highly active all over the region. ISI can never counter them. If such situation arises the Pakistani army itself is sure to be divided into two groups--one will support Musharraf and the other will go with the opponents. This type of situation will be easy for CIA to act upon. The coming weeks will show the directions Pakistan is to go to."

"Long Life To The General"

The nationalist Hindustan Times observed (12/17): "It's a relief that terrorists have failed in their attempt on the life of Pervez Musharraf.... The changed international climate has apparently induced some re-ordering of priorities in Islamabad. Today, if he can seize the opportunity presented to him to modernize and democratize his country, and to press for conflict resolution with India on the basis of sidelining the extremists, the Pakistani leader will doubtless emerge as a force for good. Unlike his predecessors, Gen. Musharraf could thus make history.... Pakistan deserves far better. Its people have lately articulated their desire to make a radical departure in their dealings with India, to the mutual benefit of both countries. Terrorism is perhaps the biggest obstacle in the way, and Gen. Musharraf is in a position to deal it blows from which it may find hard to recover. It is also slowly destroying Pakistan.... We also note former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's recent observation that Pakistan has promoted proxy war in Kashmir since 1989. She is obviously in a position to know. The entire baggage of the past needs to be taken on board when India and Pakistan leaders meet, possibly at the Islamabad SAARC in January."

PAKISTAN: "Indiscriminate Arrests On Attack On Musharraf Suspicion"

Second-largest Urdu-language Nawa-e-Waqt declared (12/30): "An intelligence agency has arrested in Karachi five Afghans suspected of the attack on Musharraf.... It can't be said with certainty that any external power was not involved in the attack. It is possible that some external power had planned the attack to create a wedge between the government of Pakistan and mujahideen in order to crush jihad in Kashmir.... The craze for good relations with India notwithstanding, we should be mindful of the difference between decency and capitulation.... The ministers should think before giving statements and the details collected by intelligence agencies should not be made a basis for a final decision, which ultimately undermines our interest and basic stand."

"Dastardly Attack"

The center-right national English-language Nation said (12/29): "The wholehearted support for the US-led so-called war on international terrorism has earned Pakistan widespread enmity within as well as outside the country of elements, which believe that it constitutes a betrayal of the Muslim Ummah's interests. At the same time, considering the politically sensitive environment around Pakistan, the probe should carefully assess whether there is any likelihood of hostile foreign agents trying to fish in troubled waters."

"Fighting A Mindset, Not Just Terorism"

Ejaz Haider wrote in the Lahore-based liberal English-language Daily Times (12/29): "Musharraf's job is much tougher than he thinks. Until he began to change the thrust of Pakistan's traditional national security policies, the principal contradiction was between the army and the civil society. Given the threat to his life not just from the outside but also from the inside, he must realize that the principal contradiction has shifted from civil-military to the liberal-reactionary divide. The liberal elements within the army and in the civil society will now have a face-off with the reactionary elements within the army and the civil society. At a minimum, this calls for a review of Musharraf's domestic political policies and alignments and the military's role in politics. Musharraf has shown himself to be a brilliant tactician; he now has to deliver as a strategist."

"Who Could It Be?"

An editorial in the Lahore-based liberal English-language Daily Times read (12/29): "The jihad has come back to haunt Pakistan. And it haunts the chief of an army that earlier helped create the jihad for its proxy wars. General Musharraf is doing the right thing by Pakistan by putting an end to the jihadi options. But he must realize that the jihadis are all here. Those who organized the jihad are all here too, inside and outside the army. And the MMA with whom he is preparing to cohabit has won its seats in parliament on the pledge of returning Pakistan to the system of the Taliban. There is no doubt that a majority of the Pakistanis support General Musharraf's campaign to rid Pakistan of terrorism but the minorities who block his way and want to kill him are financially powerful and weaponized to the teeth. He must hold firm to the policy he is pursuing but he must also know that the plots against him could not have been made without some "inside" help and that some of the state organizations that are now deputed to protect him have the past reflex of sympathizing with his would-be killers."

"Investigation Into The Assassination Attempt And Security Measures"

Center-right Urdu-language Pakistan held (12/28): "The repeated assassination attempts on President Musharraf are no ordinary incidents, nor can they be ignored. Government officials who failed to prevent these attacks must resign, otherwise the PM and Punjab chief minister must make some heads roll. The issue here is not of the President alone, it concerns Pakistan's image in the world and no concession must be made to those responsible (for this security lapse)."

"Latest Attack On President Musharraf"

Center-right Urdu-language Pakistan maintained (12/27): "Those who want to target President Musharraf due to his foreign policy--and Usama bin Laden's deputy Aiman Al Zawahiri has announced this--must understand that there is no way Pakistan can change course now.... While the nation must indeed offer thanks for President Musharraf's safety, Pakistanis will offer thanks in earnest when the attackers and their sponsors meet a just end."

"Assassination Bid"

The centrist national English-language News noted (12/27): "We join the nation in thanking the Almighty Allah that President Musharraf survived a second bid on his life.... There is no doubt that the President's services to the country are needed most at a time when it is passing through difficult times with dangers both from without and within. Those after his life must certainly want to plunge Pakistan into anarchy and sabotage the efforts being made to lead it to stability and peace."

"Dangerous Security Lapse"

Karachi-based center-left independent national English-language Dawn editorialized (12/27): "With the SAARC Summit only a few days away, and the Indian Prime Minister due in Islamabad, this month's attacks could not have come at a worse time. If any information points to these acts as attempts to sabotage a possible rapprochement between India and Pakistan, the government would do well to reveal the identity of those involved. There is genuine public goodwill for mending fences with India, and those who wish to derail this process must not be allowed to press on with their obscurantist agenda."

"Dastardly Attempt"

The centrist national English-language News (12/16): "The dastardly attempt to assassinate President Pervez Musharraf on December 14 in Rawalpindi needs to be condemned in the strongest terms possible by all people.... It is the President's determined struggle against terrorism and all kinds of extremism that has brought him bitter enemies whose main aim lies in spilling innocent human blood. It was necessary to nip this evil in the bud if Pakistan was to live among the comity of nations as a peace loving and responsible state. It could not have achieved this had not a halt been called to the mindless acts of a few misguided people. It Pakistan occupies a position of respect in the international community today it is mainly because it has shown to be a responsible state."

"Rawalpindi Blast"

Karachi-based center-left independent national English-language Dawn opined (12/16): "Merely banning a number of extremist parties

and groups over and over again will not rid the country of these dangerous elements, nor will it make Pakistan a safer society. It is time a few heads rolled for their criminal excesses in the name of religion. The culprits must now be unmasked, arrested and tried in a court of law for holding the vast majority of moderate people to ransom, and also for bringing a bad name to the country."

"General Musharraf And The State"

The Lahore-based liberal English-language Daily Times declared (12/16): "We do not know at what level the conspiracy might have been hatched but it is clear that whoever wanted to do this has hardcore contacts inside the police and security agencies guarding General Musharraf. This is the mindset the State's past policies have created within the organs and personnel of the state itself. Therefore one of the more significant--and challenging--tasks ahead for General Musharraf is to begin to change this way of thinking inside the state."

"Who Is Behind Blast?"

The Islamabad-based rightist English-language Pakistan Observer averred (12/16): "Operation being carried out around Durand Line and other Afghanistan-related developments, Government's undignified rush towards normalization of relations with India even at the cost of Pakistan's principled stand on Kashmir issue, strict measures against some `militant' organizations, undue pressure on religious and welfare institutions and above all picking up of KRL engineers for, what Government insists, debriefing have sent shock waves amongst different circles. Pakistani people demonstrated their patience during the last four years but they can never reconcile themselves with any perceived compromise on two vital issues of Kashmir and nuclear program. Such acts could be a reaction to bowing too much to foreign pressure. It would be, therefore, advisable for the Government to take steps to undo this impression that is considered to be an insult to national dignity and honor. It could also be a foreign-sponsored act to take undue advantage of the situation and create instability in the country."

"Pindi Bomb Blast"

Second-largest Urdu-language Nawa-e-Waqt editorialized (12/16): "The explosion that occurred after PresidentMusharraf's convoy moved on is regrettable. Thank God that the President survived the attack. Democracy exists in Pakistan in some form, parliament is also functional, the President will shun his uniform someday and political parties are going ahead with their activities. Such explosions are unjustifiable and have the potential to harm democracy and undermine Pakistan's image.... Although the President has blamed internal elements for the blast, it would be premature to draw this conclusion. We have in our dear homeland the presence of FBI, CIA, MOSSAD, RAW and KHAD [RAW is India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW); KHAD was the former Communist government of Afghanistan's secret service]. So it is difficult to say with certainty that this was a job of internal elements."

"Unsuccessful Attack On President And Need To Improve Law And Order"

Center-right Urdu-language Pakistan opined (12/16): "Inter service Public Relations Chief has said that the President's security is in safe hands. This statement is laughable in the sense that the culprits succeeded in detonating the explosives; the delay of 30 seconds saved the president's life.... What would be the level of protection for citizens where President could be targeted?"

"Condemnable Plan To Harm The President"

Lahore-based independent Urdu-language Din stated (12/16): "Whatever forces are involved in this terrorist act are not well-wishers of the country or the nation.... No group can be held responsible for this incident without proper investigation and inquiry. But those responsible for this condemnable act must be awarded exemplary punishment. If this does not happen, it would increase the sense of insecurity among ordinary citizens."

"Assassination Attempt On The President"

Lahore-based populist Urdu-language Khabrain opined (12/16): "The murder of MNA Maulana Azam Tariq two months ago in the twin cities (of Rawalpindi-Islamabad) and now this assassination attempt on President Musharraf prove that the security arrangements there are not as strong as they should be.... The President has announced that the government would deal strongly with extremists and reiterated that Pakistan would continue to support the international campaign against terrorism. It is a fact that terrorist activities in the country have increased as a result of Pakistan's cooperation against terrorism. However, it is hoped that government measures would help curb these incidents."

"Mr. President! The Public Is With You In Your Jihad Against Extremism"

Leading mass-circulation Urdu-language Jang editorialized (12/16): "In order to root out this extremism from within the society, one needs to remove the reasons and moving factors behind it that drive the youth towards terrorism. There is a need of dialogue between the extremist and moderate elements so as to bridge the gulf between them. The political and social problems confronting the country should be resolved at the

earliest."

"Murderous Attempt On President Musharraf"

Karachi-based, right-wing, pro-Islamic unity Urdu-language Jasarat declared (12/16): "One may differ with the policies being pursued by

President Musharraf, but this does not mean one should agree with a cowardly attempt to take his life. One cannot rule out the possibility of foreign hands in this incident. Had this attempt succeeded, the forthcoming SAARC conference in Islamabad would have been sabotaged."

"Explosion In Pindi: Some Questions To Be Asked?"

Mufti Jamiluddin Ahmad pondered in the centrist national English-language News (12/16): "What kind of signals emanate from this

dastardly act? It unfortunately came at a time when Pakistan was hosting an important dignitary in the visit of the Indonesian President Magawati Suekarnoputri.... Then many more such state visits are in the offing. To top it all, Pakistan is holding a highly important SAARC summit next month, arranged after a great deal of trouble, and finally through Pakistan's significant unilateral steps, which ultimately led the "great" neighbor finally saying yes to the proposal to come to Pakistan to attend the much awaited summit. Hopes are high that this may even lead to a meeting of the top leadership of the two countries and bring India to the dialogue table.... At a functional level, the incident has underscored the need for a real gearing up (not merely a cliche of high alert) of what goes by the name of security and law and order agencies and the intelligence network on which they are supposed to base their actions."

"Mr. President! Stay The Course"

Imtiaz Alam commented in the centrist national English-language News (12/16): "Allow greater space to the real liberal and

constitutionalist forces and make the room difficult for extremism and extremists to manure from within and without. Pakistan and terrorism cannot co-exist. Let's now make it: Now are never, before it is too late!"

"Another Nefarious Attempt to Take (President's) Life"

Ataur Rehman declared in center-right Urdu-language Pakistan (12/16): "After the attack General Musharraf termed religious extremists responsible for it.... However, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat has said something with conviction. He said that the explosion could be the handy work of the elements opposed to normalization of Pak-India relations. The Interior Minister has said so in clear terms and it is possible that he had concrete information or evidence in this respect. However, it could be said with certainty that the individuals and political leaders, who have criticized the government in this respect, do not believe in the politics of violence.... The question is as to what is the sin of those who are sticking with the old and principled opinion President Musharraf once used to have? Why did Interior Minister blamed people with such an opinion? It is possible that some of the President's own friends held to the opinion the President used to have. So the attempt to attack the President should be investigated objectively and thoroughly."

"Dastardly Attempt"

The centrist national English-language News declared (12/16): "The dastardly attempt to assassinate President Pervez Musharraf on December 14 in Rawalpindi needs to be condemned in the strongest terms possible by all people.... It is the President's determined struggle against terrorism and all kinds of extremism that has brought him bitter enemies whose main aim lies in spilling innocent human blood. It was necessary to nip this evil in the bud if Pakistan was to live among the comity of nations as a peace loving and responsible state. It could not have achieved this had not a halt been called to the mindless acts of a few misguided people. It Pakistan occupies a position of respect in the international community today it is mainly because it has shown to be a responsible state."

"Vile Bid"

The center-right national English-language Nation opined (12/16): "Some disaffected militant groups within the country or mischievous outfits outside are responsible for the bomb blast. The President's feeling pointing a finger at only local terrorists fails to take note of the machinations of our inherently hostile neighbour. RAW could now be expected to have been joined by the equally notorious MOSSAD, especially since New Delhi and Tel Aviv no longer hide their multifaceted cooperation, including in the security field. Raising a barbed fence on the LoC and the intensified slaughter of Kashmiris clearly suggest that India has taken a cue from Israel. Removing Presidents is a legitimate wish of opponents but that cannot be allowed through violent means, even if the President's provenance is questionable. Therefore, it would be suicidal to gloss over internal militancy, which has in the past committed terrorist acts. Its role, if any, in this incident should be thoroughly probed."

"Rawalpindi Blast"

Karachi-based center-left independent national English-language Dawn maintained (12/16): "Merely banning a number of extremist parties and groups over and over again will not rid the country of these dangerous elements, nor will it make Pakistan a safer society. It is time a few heads rolled for their criminal excesses in the name of religion. The culprits must now be unmasked, arrested and tried in a court of law for holding the vast majority of moderate people to ransom, and also for bringing a bad name to the country."

"General Musharraf And The State"

The Lahore-based liberal English-language Daily Times editorialized (12/16): "We do not know at what level the conspiracy might have been hatched but it is clear that whoever wanted to do this has hardcore contacts inside the police and security agencies guarding General Musharraf. This is the mindset the State's past policies have created within the organs and personnel of the state itself. Therefore one of the more significant--and challenging--tasks ahead for General Musharraf is to begin to change this way of thinking inside the state."

"Who Is Behind Blast?"

The Islamabad-based rightist English-language Pakistan Observer stated (12/16): "Operation being carried out around Durand Line and other Afghanistan-related developments, Government's undignified rush towards normalization of relations with India even at the cost of Pakistan's principled stand on Kashmir issue, strict measures against some `militant' organizations, undue pressure on religious and welfare institutions and above all picking up of KRL engineers for, what Government insists, debriefing have sent shock waves amongst different circles. Pakistani people demonstrated their patience during the last four years but they can never reconcile themselves with any perceived compromise on two vital issues of Kashmir and nuclear program. Such acts could be a reaction to bowing too much to foreign pressure. It would be, therefore, advisable for the Government to take steps to undo this impression that is considered to be an insult to national dignity and honor. It could also be a foreign-sponsored act to take undue advantage of the situation and create instability in the country."

"Pindi Bomb Blast"

Second-largest Urdu-language Nawa-e-Waqt averred (12/16): "The explosion that occurred after President Musharraf's convoy moved on is regrettable. Thank God that the President survived the attack. Democracy exists in Pakistan in some form, parliament is also functional, the President will shun his uniform someday and political parties are going ahead with their activities. Such explosions are unjustifiable and have the potential to harm democracy and undermine Pakistan's image.... Although the President has blamed internal elements for the blast, it would be premature to draw this conclusion. We have in our dear homeland the presence of FBI, CIA, MOSAD, RAW and KHAD. So it is difficult to say with certainty that this was a job of internal elements."

"Unsuccessful Attack On President And Need To Improve Law And Order"

Center-right Urdu-language Pakistan noted (12/16): "Inter-service Public Relations Chief has said that the President's security is in safe hands. This statement is laughable in the sense that the culprits succeeded in detonating the explosives; the delay of 30 seconds saved the presidents life.... What would be the level of protection for citizens where President could be targeted?"

"Condemnable Plan To Harm The President"

Lahore-based independent Urdu-language Din held (12/16): "Whatever forces are involved in this terrorist act are not well-wishers of the country or the nation... No group can be held responsible for this incident without proper investigation and inquiry. But those responsible for this condemnable act must be awarded exemplary punishment. If this does not happen, it would increase the sense of insecurity among ordinary citizens."

"Assassination Attempt On The President"

"Mr. President! The Public Is With You In Your Jihad Against Extremism"

Leading mass-circulation Urdu-language Jang observed (12/16): "In order to root out this extremism from within the society, one needs to remove the reasons and moving factors behind it that drive the youth towards terrorism. There is a need of dialogue between the extremist and moderate elements so as to bridge the gulf between them. The political and social problems confronting the country should be resolved at the earliest."

"Murderous Attempt On President Musharraf"

Karachi-based, right-wing, pro-Islamic unity Urdu-language Jasarat commented (12/16): "One may differ with the policies being pursued by President Musharraf, but this does not mean that a cowardice attempt is made to take his life. One cannot rule out the possibility of foreign hands in this incident. Had this attempt succeeded, the forthcoming SAARC conference in Islamabad would have been sabotaged."

"Explosion In Pindi: Some Questions To Be Asked?"

Mufti Jamiluddin Ahmad said in the centrist national English-language News (12/16): "What kind of signals emanate from this dastardly act? It unfortunately came at a time when Pakistan was hosting an important dignitary in the visit of the Indonesian President Magawati Suekarnoputri.... Then many more such state visits are in the offing. To top it all, Pakistan is holding a highly important Saarc summit next month, arranged after a great deal of trouble, and finally through Pakistan's significant unilateral steps, which ultimately led the "great" neighbor finally saying yes to the proposal to come to Pakistan to attend the much awaited summit. Hopes are high that this may even lead to a meeting of the top leadership of the two countries and bring India to the dialogue table.... At a functional level, the incident has underscored the need for a real gearing up (not merely a cliche of high alert) of what goes by the name of security and law and order agencies and the intelligence network on which they are supposed to base their actions."

"Mr. President! Stay The Course"

Imtiaz Alam commented in the centrist national English-language News (12/16): "Allow greater space to the real liberal and constitutionalist forces and make the room difficult for extremism and extremists to maneuver from within and without. Pakistan and terrorism cannot co-exist. Let's now make it: Now are never, before it is too late!"

"Another Nefarious Attempt To Take President's Life"

Ataur Rehman wrote in center-right Urdu-language Pakistan (12/16): "After the attack General Musharraf termed religious extremists responsible for it.... However, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat has said something with conviction. He said that the explosion could be the handy work of the elements opposed to normalization of Pak-India relations. The Interior Minister has said so in clear terms and it is possible that he had concrete information or evidence in this respect. However, it could be said with certainty that the individuals and political leaders, who have criticized the government in this respect, do not believe in the politics of violence.... The question is as to what is the sin of those who are sticking with the old and principled opinion President Musharraf once used to have? Why did Interior Minister blamed people with such an opinion? It is possible that some of the President's own friends held to the opinion the President used to have. So the attempt to attack the President should be investigated objectively and thoroughly."

EUROPE

BRITAIN: "Too Close For Comfort"

The left-of-center Guardian declared (12/18): "While George Bush and Tony Blair, leaders of the 'war on terror', celebrated Saddam's capture last Sunday, Pakistan's leader, Pervez Musharraf, was celebrating a narrow escape. The two events are connected. Gen. Musharraf has faced several assassination plots sine he took power in 1999.... Al-Qaida is the chief suspect in Sunday's assassination attempt.... If Gen.Musharraf had died last Sunday, the negative consequences for Pakistan, its neighbours and the struggle against al-Qaida would have ranged from considerable to utterly disastrous.... What all this amounts to is yet more evidence that the al-Qaida threat is steadily expanding. But what is Mr. Bush doing?... Mr. Bush mistakes his duty; stopping Bin Laden would be a sight more useful. Others will not be as fortunate as Gen. Musharraf. The true, inflated price for the Iraq distraction is still to be paid."

GERMANY: "Voyage To Pakistan"

Ruth Ciesinger commented in centrist Tagesspiegel (1/5): "President Musharraf has officially withdrawn support for Islamists; also responding to the pressure of the U.S. He also does not call for a final resolution of the Kashmir conflict as a condition for better relations to India. But the question is whether he can succeed at home. The extremists in Pakistan cause Musharraf serious problems. Only they attempted two assasinations last month. Muslim clans and tribal leaders dominate the border with Afghanistan; the central power has no influence there. To a certain extent Musharraf can only cooperate with Islamists. The international community must be clear about this if it wants to mediate in the Kashmir conflict. First of all comes the U.S. Washington and Islamabad have been close since the beginning of the Cold War. Pakistan was seen as the 'frontier state' against communism and received corresponding support. Through it America has contributed to the military armament of the country to a considerable extent. The relations cooled down after the end of the East-West conflict but they warmed up again since Pakistan is fighting in the front line against international terrorism. Washington could not have waged war against the Taliban in Afghanistan without the support of Pakistan. And now the United States is interested in stabilizing Kashmir, as the crisis regions of the Middle East and North Korea demand all the attention. For that not only pressure on President Musharraf is necessary. Democratizing Pakistan should be supported and the quality of life should be improved to dry up the stream of extremists. In regard to Islamists, the situation in the neighboring state of Afghanistan is also decisive. If a stable political system is established where terror groups can be up to their mischief, it will affect the extremists in the border region of Pakistan. In this respect, even the mission of the German army contributes to the resolution of the Kashmir conflict."

RUSSIA: "It Will Make Saddam Look Like A Goody-Goody Son Of A Bitch"

Georgy Bovt wrote in reformist Izvestiya (12/29): "The 145-million strong Pakistan is on the verge of political destabilization. Islamic radicals are seeking to overthrow Musharraf's regime. There are quite a few reasons why they want to do so. Musharraf (frankly, he could have done that more firmly) supported the United States' operation against the Talibs in Afghanistan. More recently, he has taken steps to reach another reconciliation with India in the two countries' interminable conflict over Kashmir. Finally, Musharraf has been helpful somewhat in the Americans' search for Osama Bin Laden and other al Qaida leaders who are said to be hiding in northern Pakistan. There, too, Musharraf might have done more for his allies. He is ruling a country in which over 90 percent of the population hate America. In that sense, the dictator-general and secular army command are the only obstacle to Pakistan sliding down into what may become a regime as fanatical as that of Afghanistan's Talibs or Iran's Mullahs in the early days of the Islamic Revolution. It is hard and even terrifying to imagine what will happen if Islamic radicals prevail in Pakistan. One thing is clear: there is a vast zone of instability shaping up south of the Russian border, involving aggressive authoritarian, religious, anti-Western regimes. Turkey may become their next target. Next to them, Saddam Hussein looks like a goody-goody 'son of a bitch.'"

SPAIN: "Indian-Pakistani Thaw"

Left-of-center El País opined (1/7): "If all its does is prevent the Kashmir conflict from overheating, the Islamabad agreement will be a success.... What has been agreed is, as the protagonists have said, a starting point, not an end.... During these days, the U.S. has revealed that Pakistan helped Libya and North Korea on their respective nuclear programs. More than a war for Kashmir, what today makes many strategists' hair stand on end is the possibility that.... Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of a radical Islamist regime.... Musharraf is the lesser of two evils and is probably the only opportunity to channel the Kashmir dispute."

MIDDLE EAST

UAE: "Five More Years Of Musharraf"

The English-language, pro-government Gulf News maintained (1/2): "It was no surprise that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf got his vote of confidence. He is now confirmed as head of state with a five-year term. Perhaps the only surprise is that the victory--if it can be called that--did not get the overwhelming support he had probably hoped for. It was ironic that a military ruler who became president through a bloodless coup, sought acceptance as constitutional head of state not by asking the electorate but by seeking a vote of confidence from parliaments. Of course, had the vote not gone Musharraf's way, he could always have dismissed the parliaments. And, with the new appointment of a former Supreme Justice to oversee the Supreme Courts, which are the final authority on whether parliaments should be dissolved, there would only be continued delay in parliamentary business. Such delays in the past year and more have disrupted legislation and enabled Musharraf to act as the sole governing authority in the land. The new situation changes little, but there are some who say that Pakistan is a step nearer to democracy. Other people more familiar with how a democratic government proceeds would argue with that presumption, and say the reverse is true."

EAST ASIA

AUSTRALIA: "Pakistan Faces Threat Of Terror"

The conservative national Australian editorialized (12/27): "The two recent attacks on General Musharraf, both using suicide bombers in explosives-laden cars, have al-Qa'ida written all over them. And there is no doubt that a further provocation for these attacks--as for the renewed suicide-bombing assault on Israel--are the dramatic recent conciliatory gestures by Libya and Iran, both in their turn provoked by the capture by US forces outside Tikrit of Iraq's Saddam Hussein. Events are trending against the terrorists, but as long as there are young men prepared to die for the corrupt version of the jihad they have been brainwashed into following, the snake will lash out. All the more reason to support and befriend the secular Muslim nations. Pakistan is far from being a perfect neighbour, but in the circumstances of the day it is an extremely good one."

SINGAPORE: "Shaky Pakistan"

The pro-government Straits Times held (1/2): "The news out of Pakistan in recent weeks has been deeply worrisome. There were two assassination attempts on President Pervez Musharraf within 11 days.... The attempts raised questions about the President's security and whether elements of the military might have been involved. In between the attacks, General Musharraf cut a deal with six hardline Islamic parties, agreeing to step down as army chief of staff by the end of this year. In exchange, he got a promise from the parties to support the ratification of constitutional amendments he had enacted early last year, giving the military and himself additional powers. The religious alliance won just 11 per cent of the vote in the last general election, becoming the third largest group in Parliament. And yet, it has managed to leverage this modest position into significant power, wresting from moderate parties the mantle of leadership in rolling back the military's power. All these developments are of particular concern to the world because Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons. What will happen to those weapons if Gen Musharraf were killed or deposed? Could the weapons or the highly enriched uranium...fall into the hands of extremists?.... Gen. Musharraf...represents at the moment the country's best hopes. Because of his courage in supporting the international coalition in the war against terrorism, he has elicited the ferocious hatred of jihadists in Pakistan and elsewhere.... But if he was firm in his opposition to the Taleban in Afghanistan, he has not been quite the determined foe of Islamic militancy in Pakistan itself.... The assassination attempts prove, if nothing else, that such trimming of sails does not work. Gen Musharraf must choose. There can be no accommodation of religious extremists; they have to be eliminated. The worry is whether the general is in a position to do so. Cracking down on Islamic militants would mean, among other things, abandoning them in Kashmir. And that may well require him to confront elements in his own military.... A rapprochement with India, leading to a cooling down of tensions in the disputed territory, will help.... But ultimately, this confrontation has to take place internally."

THAILAND: “A Prayer For An Endangered Dictator”

The lead editorial in the top-circulation, moderately-conservative, English-language Bangkok Post read (1/4): “Musharraf provoked the ire of Islamic extremists in Pakistan when he officially withdrew Pakistani support from the Taleban in Afghanistan after September 11, 2001 and became a major ally of United States President George Bush in the war against terror.... But in fact Musharraf has had an ambiguous relationship with extremist elements in the country, and also in the military.... The Taleban is allowed virtual control of western Pakistan.... Musharraf reached a deal with fundamentalist groups in the Pakistani Parliament that he would step down as head of the military in exchange for their support of constitutional changes he illegally made last year which assure his presidency until 2007.... General Musharraf is hardly a shining example. He is a dictator who seized power in a military coup.... But if Musharraf were removed from power suddenly somehow, it is likely that the best replacement that could be hoped for at this time would be another general just like him. The worst would be much worse, and they would have a real and well-developed WMD programme at their disposal. Musharraf's new allies in the West will no doubt stick by him...but there may not be much that anyone from the outside can do, except hope and pray. The future of Musharraf and Pakistan will be decided by people and forces inside the country.... He should stop trying to placate the militant voices that would like to turn Pakistan over to something like the Taleban. There is a strong movement for a true democracy in Pakistan. Musharraf should now cast his lot firmly and convincingly with that movement even if it eventually removes him from power.”

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

CANADA: "Friend Or Foe?"

Salim Mansur wrote in the tabloid Toronto Sun (1/2): "The two failed assassination attempts recently made on...Gen. Pervez Musharraf remind us how fragile is the U.S.-led coalition against international terrorism.... Of all the rogue states around the world, including North Korea, Pakistan as an openly declared nuclear-armed state is the most confounding strategic headache for the U.S. and its allies. The reason is simple. It is a state with just about all its functioning institutions, including the military, thoroughly infested by the ideology of Muslim fundamentalists, financed over the years by Saudi funds.... Pakistan's ruling establishment, not unlike the Saudi monarchy, has been a loyal ally of the U.S. despite its ideological leanings. During the decade-long war in Afghanistan, Muslim fundamentalism ironically served well the common purpose of all engaged there, including Osama bin Laden and his followers, in defeating the former Soviet Union. The equation was changed by 9/11. Since that fateful morning, Gen. Musharraf--having seized power in a military coup by ousting an elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, in October, 1999--steered Pakistan away from its fundamentalist clients in Afghanistan and has supported the war against terrorism. But the pro-Taliban sentiments and anti-Americanism are deeply entrenched in Pakistan's society.... Gen. Musharraf's policy situates him at cross purposes with former clients and allies of the Pakistani military. The army ranks...remain sympathetic to Muslim fundamentalists.... Recent disclosures confirming earlier suspicions of the Pakistani nuclear establishment trading technical knowledge with other rogue states, such as Libya and Iran, for profit illustrate the peril of nuclear proliferation in a much more dangerous post-9/11 world. Gen. Musharraf, despite the record of the army and his own role in it, provides the only precarious defence since 9/11 between Pakistan remaining a reluctantly responsible coalition partner of the U.S. and sliding into the black hole of terrorism where the presence of nuclear weapons is not a hypothesis but a terrifying reality. There is no doubt as to the intent of terrorists in eliminating Gen. Musharraf and throwing the entire region between India and Israel into a convulsion of a nuclear nightmare. It is uncertain how the West will respond should this nightmare become reality."

"Paskistan Is Pivotal"

Montreal's conservative Gazette opined (12/21): "In Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf narrowly escaped an assassin's bomb.... This is better news than it might appear because the attempts on his life, which beyond doubt came from Islamic fundamentalists, are the most potent testimonial you can imagine about the impact he is having as our ally in the fight against terrorism.... Within a month of Sept. 11, Musharraf sacked the director of the ISI and replaced several senior ISI department heads. Since then, the ISI has, by all accounts, worked closely with U.S. intelligence. At the same time, Musharraf has started to crack down on Pakistan's madrasahs.... More than ever, Musharraf needs the political and logistical support of Western countries, and of moderates within Pakistan.... The message in the bombing--and we'll admit to some optimism here--is the murder attempt might well signal a heightened desperation among the ringleaders of global terrorists, a sense they are losing ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan, that their escape hatches are closing. It was, remember, good intelligence that resulted in the arrest of Saddam last weekend. His capture was a formidable accomplishment. It gives us reason to hope bin Laden and his top lieutenants will be next."