October 25, 2004
BURMA SHAKE-UP:
RANGOON 'RECOILING DEEPER' INTO 'MELANCHOLIA'
KEY FINDINGS
** The ouster of PM Khin
Nyunt means prospects for democracy are "slimmer than ever."
** Nyunt was "too
reformist" for the "hardliners of the ruling junta."
** Many outlets urge ASEAN
to "press for constructive change" in Burma.
** A minority of dailies
call for "constructive re-engagement" instead of
"isolation."
MAJOR THEMES
The 'bleak prospect of democratic reforms'-- Global papers agreed that former PM Khin Nyunt's
departure "portends a turn for the worse" inside the "secretive
pariah state." The "campaign
for democracy is likely to hit a brick wall," lamented Thai writers. The independent Nation judged that
"initiatives aimed at...a more democratic future are now virtually
dead," while the moderately-conservative Bangkok Post said that
"Burma's military leaders have no intention of handing power to a civilian
government." Singapore's
pro-government Straits Times saw an "end to the junta's half-hearted
attempt at political reforms," which is "bad news" for Nobel
prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and her opposition group NLD.
An 'intensification of internal conflicts'-- Observers labeled Nyunt's "political
downfall" proof of "emerging divisiveness" inside Burma's
military. The "more liberal and
forward-looking" Nyunt sought to "actively promote national
reconciliation," but President Than Shwe's hardliners rejected
"political or economic reform."
Burma's pro-opposition Irrawaddy noted that in the "dog-eat-dog
world of Burma's military culture," reform is "bound to encounter
resistance from the country's top brass."
Several papers stressed the "strained" relations between
Nyunt's secret service and Shwe's army.
Other writers held a "power struggle over the nation's black
market" responsible for the shake-up, including the profitable
"spoils of drug trafficking."
ASEAN should be 'embarrassed'--
Calling
for "new thinking on Burma," regional editorialists criticized
ASEAN's "apathy and inattention" towards the "dictatorial
pariah-state."
Government-influenced Utusan Malaysia admitted attempts at
"constructive dialogue...have yielded no results," while India's
centrist Hindu demanded New Delhi "not acquiesce in the
perpetuation of a military dictatorship."
Britain's independent Financial Times blasted ASEAN for
"cozying up to a group of merciless, greedy and economically illiterate
generals." But a few dailies did
admit that "democratic changes will not be initiated by outside pressure."
'Further isolation' would prompt more reliance on China-- Several Asian papers said engaging Rangoon would
help it "eventually become more open and more democratic." Arguing against "interfering" in
Burma's internal affairs, Indonesia's Suara Merdeka said ASEAN should
let the Burmese "make changes by themselves." Other outlets warned that "the latest
political shake-up is bound to increase Burma's isolation," plunging it
"deeper into the Dark Ages."
Japanese papers blamed Beijing's "increased economic
assistance" for emboldening the "brutal regime." Liberal Mainichi stated that the
"Rangoon junta has been able to ignore international calls for democracy
because of China's economic assistance."
Prepared by Media Reaction Branch (202)
203-7888, rmrmail@state.gov
EDITOR: Ben Goldberg
EDITOR'S NOTE: Media
Reaction reporting conveys the spectrum of foreign press sentiment. Posts select commentary to provide a
representative picture of local editorial opinion. Some commentary is taken directly from the
Internet. This report summarizes and
interprets foreign editorial opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views
of the U.S. Government. This analysis
was based on 40 reports from 14 countries over
20 - 25 October 2004. Editorial
excerpts are listed from the most recent date.
EAST ASIA
AUSTRALIA:
"Generals Tighten The Screws"
The conservative Australian editorialized
(10/21): "Tuesday's official press
release from Burma's military government read like something out of
1984.... After 42 years of military
dictatorship, Burma is a basket case, and the ouster and house arrest of the
most open-minded member of its leadership group portends a turn for the worse.
International monitoring groups rank Burma at the bottom of the civil liberties
scale.... The closed economy is a
shambles, and the World Health Authority ranks Burma's health system at 190 out
of 191 nations.... Along with
high-profile dissident Aung San Suu Kyi...another 1400 political prisoners rot
in Rangoon's jails. Compared with our
coalition of the willing partners Britain and the US, who maintain sanctions
against Burma, Australia has taken a softly-softly line with the generals. This
is because, unlike Britain or the US, we live in Burma's neighbourhood. The
fact Burma has been allowed to remain in ASEAN is a worry, the fact it has
virtually escaped censure there a bigger worry, and the fact it is due to take
over the chair of the regional body in 2006 a disgrace. But Australia has
observer status at ASEAN, and is courting the trade bloc for a free-trade
agreement, making the Burma issue a tricky one for us. In addition, Burma is
the source of most of the heroin that comes into Australia, blighting the lives
of young Australians and their families. In order to try to maintain some
purchase with the junta in Rangoon, we have rejected sanctions for expressions
of concern.... Tuesday's lurch to the
Right in Rangoon suggests that sanctions are having little or no effect, while
inflicting great pain on ordinary Burmese. Meanwhile, Australia's policy of
diplomatic fence-sitting--no sanctions, but no active engagement via aid and
trade programs either--has achieved nothing. It's time for new thinking on
Burma."
CHINA (HONG KONG SAR):
"Why Was The Burmese PM Replaced Suddenly?"
Shihb Chun-yu wrote in pro-PRC Ta Kung Pao (10/21): "The suddenness of the news of the
replacement of the prime minister, regardless of whether this was a case of
retirement or dismissal, aroused all kinds of rumors and speculations about the
political situation in Burma.... Khin
Nyunt can be regarded as a seasoned political figure.... His power reached a new peak when he was
officially appointed prime minister of Burma in August 2003. Not long after assuming office, he announced
his 'road map' for building a democratic Burma, which was regarded as positive
move both at home and abroad.... He is
quite liberal in thinking and is quite open-minded on political issues. He is in favor of a modern approach in
running the country and actively promotes national reconciliation.... In recent months, in particular, tendencies
of an intensification of internal conflicts in the Burma government have
aroused further disputes over the road map....
. In order to extricate Burma
from a state of passivity in foreign relations, Khin Nyunt advocated
negotiations on the question of Ang San Suu Kyi. His opponents within the Burmese government
could not subscribe to this idea. They
are adamantly opposed to Ang San Suu Kyi's return to the political
arena.... Due to the lack of
transparency, the outside world can only speculate on the real reason for Khin
Nyunt's fall.... Burma 's Military
Intelligence Bureau was earlier suspected of involvement in a smuggling and
bribe-taking case in the border areas in the north.... Since Khin Nyunt has close ties with the
military intelligence system, it is not difficult to image that he got himself
entangled in the case. The possibility
that his opponents had deliberately fabricated this incident out of the needs
of political struggle cannot be ruled out.
Khin Nyunt's departure has been confirmed by the Burmese authorities,
but political stability, economic development and national reconciliation are
the biggest expectations of the Burmese people. It is hoped that Khin Nyunt's departure will
not lead to the intensification of political tremors, factional struggles and
internal conflicts in Burma."
JAPAN: "Will
Democratic Process Be Maintained?"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri argued (10/21): "ASEAN members praised former Burmese
Prime Minister Khin's presentation of a 'roadmap' for democracy, which proposes
the convening of a national assembly tasked with drafting a constitution as a
positive step toward civilian rule. The military regime led by Gen. Than needs
to maintain the democratization process set by Khin. Should plans for the assembly be canceled,
domestic discontent is likely to rise sharply and result in damaging Burma's
neighboring ties.... Western nations are
certain to apply further pressure on Burma in the face of the latest political
upheaval. But, further isolating the
country would likely prompt greater reliance on China. Burma's isolation and the growing influence
of Beijing are set to become factors crucial to regional stability. Japan should maintain its unique diplomacy
toward Burma and closely monitor the situation."
"Japan Must Draw Burma Into The International Community"
An editorial in conservative Sankei insisted (10/21): "The removal of Prime Minister Khin is
likely to encourage Burma to form closer diplomatic ties with China, which has
provided massive economic and military assistance to the Southeast Asian nation
since the 1990s. By offering moderate
economic aid in accordance with democratic reforms and improved human rights,
Japan has taken a different approach from the West, which has imposed
sanctions. It is now likely that the
U.S. and E.U. will adopt a tougher embargo.
In cooperation with ASEAN, Japan should encourage Burma to join the
international community by offering industrial and technical assistance and
providing advice on market economy practices."
"Chinese Assistance Encourages Junta"
Liberal Mainichi editorialized (10/21): "The Rangoon junta has been able to
ignore international calls for democracy because of China's economic
assistance.... Japan and Western nations
have tried to limit their assistance, but China has been actively providing
economic aid, chiefly for infrastructure projects such as road construction and
power generation. The Burmese regime
continues to seek help from Beijing, saying it is their 'true friend.' Neighbors, including ASEAN member states,
have patiently encouraged democratic reform by encouraging the nation to join
the international community. However, if
China's continued aid results in emboldening Burmese military hardliners, such
efforts are destined to become meaningless.
Beijing must sharply curb its assistance in order to prevent undermining
the efforts of neighboring countries. As
a regional power and as a security council member, China must act with
humility."
"Burma Becoming International 'Pariah'"
Business-oriented Nihon Keizai observed (10/21): "The Burmese military regime sacked
reformist Prime Minister Khin just after the conclusion of an ASEM leaders'
meeting, during which European members strongly condemned Burma's human rights record.... The latest political shake-up is bound to
increase Burma's isolation. Gen. Than
Shwe and other military leaders must listen to their people and the
international community, and convincingly explain the dismissal of the moderate
prime minister. They must also clearly
state their plans for the long-standing agenda of democratization."
"Democracy Slipping Away"
Liberal Asahi said (10/21): "Japan occupied Burma during World War
II and supported its independence from the British colonial rule. It has also been deeply committed to the
nation's postwar reconstruction through aid and investment. Although it is understandable that Japan
cannot act in the same way as European nations by applying strong pressure, how
long will Tokyo continue to use its form of 'assistance diplomacy' in the face
of the military regime's flat rejection of local and international calls for
dialogue? The view of other Asian
countries toward Japan's diplomatic approach must also be considered. We must thoroughly review our stance while
taking into account Burma's future as well that of the entire Southeast Asia region."
"Political Battle Over Black Market
Prompted Upheaval"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri maintained (10/20): "The removal of Burmese Prime Minister
Khin has offered a glimpse of the power struggle over the nation's black
market. Rumor has it that businessmen belonging
to Khin clashed with rivals associated with Maj. Gen. Myint Swe, No.2 in the
regime hierarchy, over the trafficking of wooden products along the China-Burma
border... The U.S. and E.U. have long maintained tight economic sanctions on
Burma, but such efforts have been limited by the black market, which forms the
backbone of the Burmese economy."
"Hardliners To Drive Burma Into Further Isolation"
Liberal Asahi observed (10/20): "The inauguration of hardliner Lt. Gen.
Soe Win as Burma's new Prime Minister suggests the nation is moving further
into isolation. Former Prime Minister
Khin Nyunt, a moderate who assumed the post only last year, was apparently
sacked because his appointment did not help deflect criticism from the U.S. and
Europe of Burma's military rule. Increased
economic assistance from India and China is also seen as encouraging the junta
to oust Khin, who served as a go-between for Burma and Western nations. The house arrest of opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi seems likely to be further prolonged."
"Junta Loses Diplomatic Leader"
Liberal Mainichi argued (10/20): "The removal of Burmese Prime Minister
Khin indicates the loss of a skillful diplomat who worked to strengthen ties
with the nation's neighbors and bring the reclusive state closer to the international
community. Hardliners led by junta
leader Gen. Than Shwe are expected to strengthen relations with China, who has
kept silent about the issue of human rights in Burma."
BURMA: "One Down, Two
To Go"
Aung Zaw commented in the independent, pro-opposition
Thailand-based weekly Irrawaddy (10/21):
"The sacking of Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt this week came as no
great surprise.... The dismissal was the
result of a power struggle between Khin Nyunt and Deputy Sr-Gen Maung
Aye.... Legions of officers associated
with the ousted PM have been detained. This is not a matter of health, this is
a purge.... Than Shwe has been engaged
in a balancing act with the two strongmen. But in the end, the junta chairman
and armed forces commander in chief finally sided with Maung Aye.... Khin Nyunt’s expanding authority cramped the
style of many high-powered army toughies. His workaholic tendencies and high
profile allowed him to increase his influence to the point that several of
Burma’s top brass felt their power endangered by the chief spook.... Sometimes labeled a moderate or a pragmatist,
Khin Nyunt is considered among the least corrupt of Burma’s top
leaders.... Aside from reforming and
redefining the MI department, Burma’s remaining military leaders will have to
tackle some sensitive issues, like dealing with the ceasefire groups which have
expressed concern over the sudden leadership change in Rangoon.... But Rangoon analysts fear that Maung Aye’s
past hostilities toward the ethnic minorities could resurface and rekindle
armed conflict between the central government and the erstwhile ethnic
insurgents. Full-scale conflict would be anathema to Rangoon, but military
leaders need a modicum of instability in the country in order to justify and
prolong its rule.... It is also likely
that the sacking of Khin Nyunt will have minimal impact on the National
Convention, tasked with drafting a new constitution, and the seven-point road
map to political reform.... As it is
considered the generals’ only viable exit strategy, the junta chairman will not
backtrack.... So where does that leave
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi?....
Her safety could be in jeopardy....
But if Than Shwe is really driven by a desire to go down in history as
Burma’s benevolent king...perhaps brighter days are ahead for the beleaguered
country.... Burma’s dynamic duo, Than
Shwe and Maung Aye, must make a move. They can plunge Burma deeper into the
Dark Ages, or they can begin to work for genuine reform. But in the dog-eat-dog
world of Burma’s military culture, they are bound to encounter resistance from
the country’s top brass.... We will have
to wait for the next chapter in the power play in Rangoon."
"General Maung Aye’s Putsch?
The independent pro-opposition Thailand-based
weekly Irrawaddy declared (10/20):
"Since being appointed prime minister in August 2003, Khin Nyunt
had made no discernible progress. The economy remains moribund, the tough U.S.
sanctions...remain in place, and the country maintains its pariah status. This
situation is attributable in part to Khin Nyunt’s initiatives being undermined
by others.... His seven-point road map
to political reform...was derailed at the first stop—the constitution-drafting
National Convention, convened in May, was adjourned indefinitely in early July.
The ceasefire negotiations with the Karen National Union, conducted by his
subordinates at the OCMI, were ignored by the Burma Army, which continued to
attack Karen troops and civilians.... He
has looked increasingly marginalized and ineffectual since the beginning of
this year.... There have been recurrent
rumors since 1998 of mutual antagonism between Khin Nyunt and (then) Gen Maung
Aye, chief of the Burma Army.... On a
personal level, Maung Aye has a reputation as a heavy drinker, while Khin Nyunt
has a reputation as a workaholic and a teetotaler. Maung Aye had the troops, so
why did it take so long to get rid of the spook? Realizing they have no mandate to rule and
are despised by the population at large, the ruling generals maintained a
united front.... There is no coherent
answer, but this is not a coherent regime....
In a government where paranoia reigns supreme, just suspicion would have
been sufficient motivation to launch preemptive action. That leaves Maung Aye and Than Shwe as the
last men standing from the junta that took power in 1988. They will have to
maintain control as long as they can or they risk a fate similar to that which
befell their erstwhile colleagues and former superiors. The climate of fear within the ruling circle
endures."
INDONESIA:
"Myanmar And Generals' Hands"
Semarang-based Suara Merdeka declared
(10/22): "Myanmar [ Burma ] is one
of the ten members of ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] which has
so far been problematic because the military junta in power in the country is
seen, particularly by its ASEAN partners...as having poor records on human
rights and being anti-democracy....
ASEAN ought to be able to see the positive signals to step up efforts to
democratize Myanmar, without being seen as interfering in its internal affairs.
Pressuring action has thus far proven to be a boomerang only.... So, let Burmese people, in particular the
junta in power, make changes by themselves."
MALAYSIA:
"Myanmar Peace Plan In Soe Win's Hands"
Azlinariah Abdullah wrote in
government-influenced Utusan Malaysia (10/24): "The ousting of [Burmese prime minister]
Khin Nyunt, who had so far been seen as a reform figure in the military junta,
shows that the attempts of ASEAN to have constructive dialogue with Yangon
[Rangoon] have yielded no results. As the developments in Myanmar [now under Prime
Minister Lt-Gen Soe Win] require attention from all of us, the junta government
should never refuse to negotiate because such a stance can embarrass its
neighbouring countries in ASEAN."
"Light Of Democracy Grows Dim Again"
You Zhi contended in Chinese-language
government-influenced China Press (10/24): "Now that former Burmese Prime Minister
Khin Nyunt has lost power overnight, ASEAN countries may not dare to easily
make international pledges for Myanmar again, and there could also be some
ASEAN member nations which simply distance themselves from Myanmar. The ray of
light for the democratization of Myanmar has grown dim again."
"Democracy in Myanmar Becomes Bleaker"
Noraini Abdul Razak commented in
government-influenced Utusan Malaysia (10/22): "Myanmar, which is also known as Burma,
got its independence in 1948 and has been under a military junta since 1962.
This short history shows differences between Burma and its neighbour countries,
which apply democratic systems in their own governments.... The world, particularly the West, is now
awaiting the mission and vision of [Prime Minister] Soe Win to reform the
government system in Myanmar."
"It Is Fortunate To Be Malaysian
Citizens"
Awang Selamat observed in government-influenced Utusan
Malaysia (10/21): "What
happened in Myanmar was not expected.
The house arrest of the country's prime minister, General Khin Nyunt, is
no small matter. It appears as if there
exists a power struggle.... The general
is someone who is very influential within the leadership of Myanmar. That he is under detention raises many
questions about what is happening. The
development is a slap in the face of all the efforts made to open up Myanmar
and to put the country on the road to democracy. At the time when the effort to free Suu Kyi
started to bring hope, this unexpected development arrived. This shows that some military leaders who do
not want change and are not comfortable with the efforts to release the
pro-democracy leader. The government
media mentioned health as the reason for Khin Nyunt's removal. Some said it was because of
corruption.... The reason appears to be
one of politics. Myanmar possesses great
development potential. However, it
remains undeveloped. This is because it
is not being developed correctly under the military leadership."
SINGAPORE:
"Sudden Change"
Pro-government Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao
said (10/22): "The sudden
leadership change in Myanmar took the international community by surprise. Indications show that the recent political
development in Myanmar could be more than a normal fight within the military
government for reallocation of power. It
might signify a drastic political divide between the former and present
governments. As leader of the
military-ruled Myanmar, former Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt had, since he
became the prime minister, been pressured by the U.S. and the EU to develop a
scheduled democracy roadmap for Myanmar.
But while the West is still critical about General Khin Nyunt's effort
to pave the way for a democratized Myanmar, here comes the hardliner Lt-Gen Soe
Win rising to power and replacing General Khin Nyunt as the new prime
minister.... We are afraid that such a
political development might lead Myanmar forming a new, conservative and anti-western
force.... Since Myanmar is an ASEAN
member, the country's leadership change is of great concern to all ASEAN
countries. When Myanmar applied to join
ASEAN, the region thought that through engaging the military-led Myanmar with
other democratic nations, Myanmar would eventually become a more open and more
democratic country. This is the main
reason why the ASEAN is willing to accept Myanmar into its big family amidst
complaints from the West. However...such
a sudden political development in Myanmar will further hamper the democratic
process of the country. Our collective
effort in trying to free detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi might
also become relatively more difficult to achieve under the Lt-Gen Soe Win's
military rule. Such a political
development is going to hamper the diplomatic relations of Myanmar with the
U.S. and the EU. As a result of this
political ripple, ASEAN would also feel pressure from the international
community. While we realize that a
military government cannot be turned into a democratic regime overnight, we do
hope that the ASEAN as a whole will not have to be pressured to interfere with
the democratic process in Myanmar following the recent leadership change in
this military-led government."
"Myanmar's Melancholia"
The pro-government Straits Times opined
(10/21): "Poetic justice might be a
common reaction to news that Myanmar's Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has been
placed under house arrest in another of those periodic Yangon power jousts.... He had a hand in the on-off detention of the
nationalist-activist Aung San Suu Kyi...the living symbol of a nation caught in
a time warp. But closer inspection of
General Khin Nyunt's known attempts to drag his country out of its
self-inflicted isolation would point to his ouster as being a setback to
Myanmar's emancipation.... He has been
associated with reformist tendencies, or what passes for such in Myanmar.
First, he was thought to have disagreed with his fellow junta generals over the
handling of Ms Suu Kyi. Allegedly, he strived to have her released, but under
stringent conditions.... Within ASEAN,
he is credited with having tried to put a more acceptable face on Myanmar's
hard political choices.... He has most
recently tried to fashion a consensus for constitutional change via a national
convention which is to involve all stakeholders.... On these yardsticks, Gen Khin Nyunt comes
close to accepted notions of a conciliator. But the convention has been hobbled
by the NLD's refusal to attend unless Ms Suu Kyi is freed.... But one cannot be categoric one way or
another about Myanmar. Corruption and health reasons ascribed to the latest
purge look like a cover for a serious falling-out among the leadership. About
the only certainty is that Myanmar is recoiling deeper into its
melancholia."
"Hopes Of Political Reform Dashed With PM's
Sacking"
Lee Kim Chew stated in the pro-government Straits
Times (10/21): "The sudden fall
of Myanmar's General Khin Nyunt puts an end to the junta's half-hearted attempt
at political reforms. The ousted prime
minister and military intelligence chief is no democrat, but he alone in the
ruling troika was at least amenable to engaging pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi to break the country's political stalemate. Now that the regime's hardliners--Senior
General Than Shwe, the Armed Forces Chief and Chairman of the State Peace and
Development Council, and Senior General Maung Aye, his deputy--have toppled him
and taken full control, any hope of a breakthrough can be put in deep
freeze.... On paper, there was a roadmap
to democratic elections, ostensibly a bid to deflect mounting international
pressure on the ostracised junta, which presides over a crumbling economy
severely hit by Western sanctions....
With Gen Khin Nyunt's exit, the military regime has dropped all pretence
at engaging the pro-democracy leader.
His 56-year-old successor, Lieutenant-General Soe Win, ranks among the
junta's top leaders who brand Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD as subversive elements
fronting for the Western liberal democracies they despise.... His meteoric rise in the past year comes in
the wake of the regime's increasingly bare-knuckled policy against the
NLD.... Myanmar's military rulers stake
their claim on power in the name of national unity and they have no time for
their critics.... The upshot of the
latest changes in the secretive military regime is that Senior General Than
Shwe, backed by a like-minded deputy, has succeeded in consolidating his power
to become Myanmar's pre-eminent leader.
Democratic reforms are not on his agenda, and the track record over the
past four decades shows that Myanmar's military strongmen had resisted
change. The present junta looks set to
carry on the tradition."
THAILAND:
"Thai-Burmese Relations Need New Thinking And Actions"
Thatthai Phonsit asserted in elite
business-oriented Krungthep Thurakit (10/25): "The political change in Burma is not
strange. It can occur any time when
disputes arise over how interests are divided up. We must not forget that in undemocratic
countries there is a lack of people's participation.... But given the political scene monopolized by
the three persons, corruption probably is not the main reason for the coup. The main reason is probably a fear of power
loss and of power being diverted to other groups.... As prime minister, Gen Khin Nyunt was more
accommodating and engaged in negotiations with Aung San Suu Kyi.... The latest coup completely destroys those
hopes.... The past and present Thai
governments base their relations with Burma on economic interests.... Very worrisome is that the Thai government's
good intentions could further strengthen the Burmese military government's
power to intimidate the political opposition.... Is now not the time for the Thai government
to review its relations with Burma?....
Does Bangkok follow the world trend that regards human rights very
highly? Or does it stay in an ivory
tower and hand out money to neighboring countries and hope to reap benefits
from them in return?"
"How Thailand’s Business-Oriented Diplomacy Damages
Country"
Elite, business-oriented Krungthep Turakij said
(10/22): "No matter what the real
motive was for the ouster of Khin Nyunt, the fact is that the military trio
(Generals Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt) had been collaboratively ruling
the country before they broke up due to conflicts of interests.... The ouster had nothing to do with ideology or
nation-building whatsoever.... The Thai
government must make its position known to the world that its engagement in
Burma’s affairs are neither based on telecommunications nor forest concessions
nor other personal interests. To show
his honesty, the Thai leader must withdraw both private and government projects
from Burma until a clear picture of the country’s future is in sight.”
"It Is Essential To Pay Attention To
Burma"
Moderately-conservative Thai Post opined
(10/22): "The transformation in
Burma forces the international community to focus on Thailand's neighbor once
again.... The coup gives several
countries concern that the hope for democracy in Burma , which was dim before,
could be worse as long as the group now in power retains its mastery. The excuse given by the coup party is the
usual allegation used to justify coups anywhere. Because the government was corrupt and
lacked transparency, the military had to make changes. Only the government leaders have been
changed, the system that brought them to power is left untouched.... The coup does not only set back democracy,
but freedom and the direction professed by Aung San Suu Kyi, a great but
powerless advocate of democracy, have been throttled as well. The coup reflects...the beginning of a new
chapter of the military junta.... It
sends the clear signal that Burma is not interested at all in how the world,
particularly the West, may perceive it.
As a result, certain superpowers have urged the international community
to show stronger objections to the Burmese military government.... But it will be difficult for Thailand to make
any decision given its desire to continue trading with Burma and given the
long-standing position of ASEAN countries not to interfere in each other's
internal affairs. Apathy and inattention
to the political situation in Burma , which could stem from a desire to avoid
conflict and negative impact on trade with Burma, is tantamount to neglect on
the part of Thailand and ASEAN of the welfare of the Burmese people.... It is time that Thailand and ASEAN...pay
attention to Burma and find ways to cooperate with it to bring about political
and economic development."
"A Misplaced Bet On Khin Nyunt"
The independent, English-language Nation contended
(10/21): "ASEAN has gone out of its
way to protect Burma in regional and international arenas, believing--wrongly,
of course--that peer pressure might in some way help transform this dictatorial
pariah-state into an open society governed by the rule of law.... In exchange, the leaders of the military
junta in Rangoon have exploited ASEAN’s creditability and good will and have
stonewalled sustained international pressure for reform.... In a further irony, ASEAN continues to
emphasize the process of national reconciliation in Burma, though without
including Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate and leading local democracy
advocate. What kind of thinking is
that?.... If anything happens to this
crucial Burmese voice in the days and weeks to come, ASEAN and the EU will only
have themselves to blame.... To
Thailand, the dismissal of Khin Nyunt appears to have a deeper impact. More than Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
would like to admit, of course, the personal connections and burgeoning
business interests between the two countries have suffered because of events of
the past several days.... The changes
that took place in Rangoon on Wednesday will have far-reaching repercussions on
Thailand’s policy towards Burma and the whole range of economic and trading
arrangements between the two countries.
The change of leadership in Burma could lead to attempts to further
discredit Khin Nyunt, which may entail disclosure of all sorts of shady
business deals that had been sealed with foreign leaders or businessmen.”
"Give Burma A Clear Message"
The top-circulation, moderately-conservative, English-language Bangkok
Post noted (10/21): "The rise
of hardliners in Burma is bad news for anyone hoping for national
reconciliation and participatory government in the impoverished country. As an immediate neighbor with some leverage,
Thailand must show the way in dealing with the new leadership.... Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra can help by
opting for pressure rather than accommodation. The leverage he can apply lies
in the controversial credit line of four billion baht that his government has
extended to the junta in Rangoon for infrastructural development.... To press for constructive change in Burma,
the prime minister could order a stop to any further disbursement of the credit
line.... The prime minister should also
drop Burma from the economic co-operation strategy he initiated last
year.... He should also persuade other
member states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to withhold
economic co-operation with Burma until their commitment to political reform is
shown. As a group, ASEAN must make clear
that a Burma uncommitted to reform cannot chair the grouping in 2006 as
scheduled.... Until the new leadership
in Rangoon proves that it is committed to desirable change, the prime minister
must resist any temptation to rally to them.
Any telephone contact or visit would be taken as recognition.... The change in Rangoon is an opportunity for
Thailand, and ASEAN, to come clean by putting people before private interests.”
"Confusion In Thailand And Burma"
Economic-political Lok Wanni held
(10/20): "Regardless of the
rationale for the political change, there is a good chance that Burma under
leadership of Gen Maung Aye or Gen Than Shwe...will become more closed than
before. The Bangkok peace process and
the drafting of constitution to build national reconciliation in Burma will
probably stall, so will the effort to resolve the issue involving Aung San Suu
Kyi.... The change in Burma ,
particularly the ouster of Gen Khin Nyunt, warrants close watch, as the coup
party cited corruption...to justify its action.... The coup led by Gen Maung Aye will lead Burma
to adopt a closed-door policy by ignoring international pressure and
negotiations with ethnic groups and Aung San Suu Kyi.... Trade activities along the border will
certainly be adversely affected; Burma has already imposed strict controls on
goods.... Interesting is the rationale
cited by the coup party. The party
claimed corruption by intelligence units under Gen Khin Nyunt...as well as lack
of transparency in telecommunication contracts with Thailand.... To justify the loans, the Thai government
cited its policy of assistance of neighboring countries and claimed that the
4-billion-baht loan carried no risk of default because it served as
guarantor. Regardless of the real rationale
for the coup in Burma, any reference to Thailand will tarnish its reputation
and, therefore, the Thai government must clarify the situation.... Meanwhile, the government must be ready to
cope with tension along the Burmese border....
Thai foreign policy will be affected regardless of whether Burma chooses
a closed-door policy or opens itself wider.
Most important is that the Thai government must bear in mind the
interests of the country and Thai people."
"Khin Nyunt's Ouster Creates Dark Cloud"
Larry Jagan held in the moderately-conservative
English-language Bangkok Post (10/20):
"The power struggle within Burma's military appears to have come to
a head with the removal of Gen Khin Nyunt as the country's prime
minister.... But so far details of the
purge are sketchy.... On the face of it,
this is a crackdown on corruption....
For months now, Than Shwe has been systematically reducing Khin Nyunt's
power.... Over the past few years it has
been clear that there was a growing division within Burma's military leadership
on how to maintain the army's political role in the future and develop the
country. It has largely been a rift
between the pragmatists around Khin Nyunt, who believe that only by introducing
some form of political and economic reform can the military preserve its
position in the long run, and the hardliners--Than Shwe and his supporters--who
believe that making any concession is a sign of weakness that would erode their
position. But more importantly, the
pragmatists, including the prime minister, understood the critical need for
political and economic reform in Burma....
More significant changes are in the pipeline.... China will certainly be unhappy. They have
been strong supporters of Khin Nyunt and had pinned their hopes on him being
able to introduce economic reform. The
future of Burma's national reconciliation process has also been thrown into
doubt.... What is now more clear is that
Burma's military leaders have no intention of handing power to a civilian
government in the near future. Gen Than Shwe has made no secret of his
intention to remain in control for at least another decade and will continue to
remove any rivals within the army he fears may threaten to his ambition."
"Cloud Over Peace Pacts, Democracy"
The independent English-language Nation
concluded (10/20): "The sacking
yesterday of Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt from the inner circle of the
military junta has sent an eerie chill through the troubled nation--and region. Domestically, opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi and her campaign for democracy is likely to hit a brick wall because Khin
Nyunt, the man who opened communications between the junta and the National
League for Democracy (NLD), has been sidelined.
The generals who launched the purge against Khin Nyunt are the same
people who spearheaded Suu Kyi’s arrest in May last year. Lt General Soe Win, who was named yesterday
as Khin Nyunt’s replacement as prime minister, rallied the Union Solidarity
Development Association in their brutal attack on Suu Kyi and her supporters in
northern Burma last year.... The mob was
a pet project of his boss, overall leader Senior General Than Shwe.... Thailand’s connection with Burma over the
last three years has been largely defined by PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s 'personal
diplomacy,' which basically meant having faith in Khin Nyunt’s ability to
secure whatever arrangements were made.
It was Thaksin who stuck his neck out for Khin Nyunt at the Asean summit
in Bali last year.... Now that Khin
Nyunt is out of the picture, the future of Thai-Burmese relations is likely to
come under intense pressure....
Internationally, there are more repercussions. UN special envoy Razali
Ismail, who relied on Khin Nyunt as his point of entry into Burma’s top
political circle, will have to go back to the drawing board.... Initiatives aimed at giving Rangoon a more
democratic future are now virtually dead with the departure of Khin Nyunt and
former foreign minister Win Aung, who was ousted on September 18.... Win Aung allegedly warned senior diplomats
some weeks back that Khin Nyunt’s position as premier was shaky--and yesterday
his words were shown to be true."
EUROPE
BRITAIN:
"General Confusion: Burma's
Power Struggle Exposes Asian Policy Vacuum"
An editorial in the independent Financial
Times read (10/21): "There was
never any doubt that Burma was corrupt or that its generals argued over the
spoils of drug trafficking and the sale of jade and timber to China.... What is surprising is that Asian governments
ever advertised their policy of ignoring the wishes of the Burmese people and
cosying up to a group of merciless, greedy and economically illiterate generals
as a viable strategy for determining Burma's future."
"Tyranny"
An editorial in the center-left Independent read
(10/20): "The arrest of the
reform-minded Prime Minister of Burma, Khin Nyunt, yesterday has reminded the
rest of the world of the brutality which exists in that secretive pariah state. It also demonstrates how distant is the
prospect of democracy."
GERMANY: "Evil
Signs"
Moritz Kleine-Brockhoff noted in left-of-center Frankfurter
Rundschau (10/20): "It does not
come as a surprise that Burma's Prime Minister was ousted.... Nobody can really see behind the curtains of
the junta. We can only speculate why he
had to go. Apparently he was too
moderate, given that he had announced a road map to democracy. But that was one year ago and certainly
agreed beforehand. Maybe it was disliked
that he respected the Peace Noble Prize winner Suu Kyi, whereas the dictator
hated her. But that is no secrete. It is most likely the Nyunt has done
something that is not publicly known....
If Burma will stay calm now it will mean that dictator Than Shwe has a
firm grip on power. That means bad news
for Suu Kyi and her opposition group NLD....
The dictator has been ruling for 16 years and the democracy movement is
as defeated as before. There will be no
change under him."
"Return To Ice Age"
Nicola Glass commented in leftist die tageszeitung of
Berlin (10/20): "There is no
question about it, but hardliners of the military junta have catapulted the
country back into the Ice Age. The
reconciliation process, which had been put on hold anyway, is about to
collapse. It was predictable that Junta
head Than Shwe will prevail.... One
thing is clear: democratic changes will
not be initiated by outside pressure.
All sanctions imposed against the country have not resulted in any sort
of liberalization of the impoverished country.
The release of Suu Kyi in May 2002 was just part of the junta's tactic
to keep the window open to the outside world.
Change can only come from inside Burma.
It is questionable whether this can happen peacefully, given that the
regime replied to demonstrations with bloodsheds in the past. A coup by reformers, like the arrested Prime
Minister, could be a solution."
ITALY: "Myanmar,
Generals’ Showdown"
Leading business-oriented Il Sole-24 Ore held (10/20): "A long power struggle came to a
dramatic end yesterday in Myanmar (former Burma) when the prime minister was
removed from office and placed under house arrest on corruption charges.
General Soe Win replaces Khin Nyunt: according to Burma watchers, Nyunt’s
departure leaves the field open to some of the most hard-line military factions,
while prospects for a political change are slimmer than ever and the hopes for
a change in Nobel prize winner Auung San Suu Kyi’s situation, who has been
under house arrest for years, are practically nil.... The news that 64-year-old Nyunt is under house
arrest comes from neighboring Thailand....
But according to analysts, in a country that is full of corruption, this
accusation is only a pretext to get him out of the way.... Other observers believe that Nyunt’s fall can
be attributed to a war of interests, rather than differences over democracy, in
a country in which the military has once again gained control of the economy.”
"The Burmese Junta Arrests The Premier And His Reform
Plans"
Elite, classical liberal Il Foglio maintained
(10/20): "It’s a classic--a clash
between the secret service and the armed forces. Or, more simply, it was a
clash between those who want to lead the country towards democracy and those
who fear losing their privileges.... The
army, acting under the orders of General Than Shwe...removed and placed under
house arrest on corruption charges Premier Khin Nyunt.... At the bottom of this lie a power issue and
the military’s fear of losing given privileges. We must draw an analogy with
North Korea. In both countries the military and political leaders fear that any
sort of liberalization would lead to a reduction of their status in order to
make room for market logic.”
MIDDLE EAST
UAE: "Cocooned In
Myanmar"
The expatriate-oriented English-language Khaleej
Times maintained (10/21): "The
departure of Khin Nyunt as the prime minister has yet again put the world
spotlight on Myanmar. Nyunt, of course, was no liberal as many make him out to
be. Yet, his exit does not bode well for the Asian country, which has been
labouring under the repressive military junta for decades now. At least, the
deposed prime minister had allowed hopes at home and around the world by
unveiling his much-hyped roadmap. Khin
Nyunt’s honesty of intentions behind the roadmap might not have been beyond
reproach. But the deposed prime minister seemed to understand the importance of
engaging the pro-democracy movement leader, the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi,
under house arrest for many hopeless years now. More important, he was not
dimissive of world opinion. It is a
shame that all around Myanmar, democratic changes are taking place. Its
neighbours like Bangladesh and Thailand are opening up their economies for
foreign investment in turn benefiting their people. Myanmar remains cut off and isolated from the
world because of its terrible record....
The circumstances under which Nyunt was removed leave no one in doubt
that the military junta led by the powerful Than Shwe has further strengthened
its stranglehold over the country’s power structure. The West may make suitable
noises over the state of affairs in Myanmar but it can do little to force Gen
Shwe to heed world opinion. Elusive and mysterious Gen Shwe does not seem to
care two hoots about the international community. The only way to persuade
Myanmar to change for the better is by using the influence of its neighbours
like China and Thailand. They alone can persuade the junta to free Suu Kyi and
usher in democracy and transparency."
"Setback In Myanmar"
The expatriate-oriented English-language Gulf
Today declared (10/20):
"Myarnmar's chaotic politics has taken a further beating with the
sacking and house arrest of General Khin Nyunt.... The dramatic development came amid reports of
brewing political tension and even a likely coup attempt. Like his adversary,
pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, the deposed leader has also been banished
into detention.... These developments
were not surprising because of a recent rise in political temperature in
Yangon. After Khin Nyunt was shifted to
the premier's job in August last year, he crossed the path of the military
strongman, General Than Shwe. As the former head of the military intelligence,
the deposed premier had been ranked third in the cabinet hierarchy.... His political downfall, which came after he
was slapped with corruption charges, is a punishment for being too reformist to
the liking of the junta.... Khin Nyunt's
exit is a serious setback to attempts to strike a deal with the pro-democracy
leaders. Yangon, an international pariah for thwarting democracy and rights
violations, could now face the toughest sanctions since it rejected the 1990
election victory of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.... The sacking of Khin Nynut could be considered
a reversal of the promise the junta had made in May on political
reforms.... The junta has also become a
thorn on the 10-nation Association of South-East Asian Nations since its
admission to the bloc in 1997. Asean, which had hoped that the military would
relax its grip, is embarrassed as Yangon would be chairing its meeting in 2006.
The bloc had reposed faith in Khin Nynut, whom it found to be the reformist
face of the junta. Despite his notoriety
for brutal repression of dissent as prime minister, Khin Nynut had appeared to
back the seven-point roadmap to democracy that was also endorsed by the
UN.... But the hardliners, headed by
Than Shwe, could not stand any such mellowness. The crackdown on Khin Nynut is
a throwback to the earlier days of the brutal regime. It also reflected the
emerging divisiveness among the military ranks with the hardliners gaining the
upper hand."
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA:
"No Room For Moderates"
The centrist Hindu editorialized
(10/25): "The developments in
Yangon last week resulting in the removal of PM Khin Nyunt do no good to the
purported attempts to launch democratic reforms in Burma. Known as a moderate...Khin Nyunt...went so
far as to engage the pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi
in dialogue. Although Senior General
Than Shwe...retained full control before the easing out of Gen. Khin Nyunt and
continues to call the shots, the replacement is all the more disturbing. Lt. Gen. Soe Win is seen as a trusted
lieutenant of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe and the man behind the disturbances that led
to the arrest of Ms. Suu Kyi last year....
As PM, Khin Nyunt offered some hope for those who believed that
'constructive engagement' with Myanmar would help in the phased restoration of
democracy. That hope may have been dashed....
Six years ago, ASEAN admitted Myanmar as a member in the hope that such
an engagement would gradually transform the junta into a passable form of
government.... Yangon has taken full
advantage of ASEAN.... Myanmar is expected
to chair the ASEAN Standing Committee in 2006 and it is for the other member
states to decide if the military dictatorship should be allowed the honour. The
international community is expected to monitor developments in Yangon but there
is very little it seems able to do to make the Myanmar Generals see reason and
take the path of democratic reform. The
disturbing changes have taken place on the eve of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe's visit to
India.... India needs to formulate a
clear and progressive policy on Myanmar. It should not accept or go along with
these actions of the military junta and turn a blind eye to the continued
suppression of the pro-democracy movement....
While wishing to maintain good-neighbourly relations with Myanmar, the
world's largest practising democracy should not acquiesce in the perpetuation
of a military dictatorship.... It is
high time constitutional reforms, set in motion over a decade ago, were brought
to a head and democracy restored in Myanmar."
"Suffocating Democracy In Myanmar"
Influential Hindi-language Rashtriya Sahara
editorialized (10/20): "The sacking
of Myanmarese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and placing him under house arrest is
bad news for all the world's pro-democracy people. Nyunt was not a sentinel of democracy,
but...he was definitely a flickering ray of hope for democracy in Myanmar.... It is futile to raise any hope of liberation
from new Prime Minister Soe Win who is General Than Shwe's crony. It was not possible to liberate Myanmar from
the Junta regime.... After Khin, it is
now the international community's turn to show some courage. The instability, human rights violation and
inhuman military rule in Myanmar must not be tolerated.... Khin was the country's military intelligence
chief and since last few months relations between the army and the military
intelligence have been strained. The
Junta regime said that the military intelligence was acting as Suu Kyi's
broker.... Khin's removal is a case of
human rights violation and suppression of the people's wishes.... The U.S. has immediately announced a few
sanctions. All countries have severed
relations with Myanmar , but that is no solution to the problem. What relief would it provide the Myanmarese
by imposing sanctions for the sake of it and by severing relations? It would be better if all the democratic
powers got together and intervened extensively through the UN.... Human rights violation and suppression of
people's wishes cannot be allowed in the name of sovereignty. India, for being the world's largest
democracy and the U.S...must think seriously about their role in this
matter."
"Securing The Eastern Flank"
Ashok K Mehta wrote in the pro-BJP
right-of-center Pioneer (10/20):
"Senior General Than Shwe, the military supremo and President of
Burma (Myanmar), will be in Delhi next week for the first high-level visit to
India in decades.... His visit marks the
culmination of a reversal of policy by India in 1993 to normalise and
revitalise relations with the military junta, previously treated as a
pariah.... The junta has ignored UN
resolutions.... The struggle for power
is the struggle for the symbol: Who inherits the mantle of Aung San -- the
junta or Suu Kyi?.... The junta commands
the loyalties of a 450,000 strong army backed by China.... Suu Kyi is a big threat to the SPDC which has
defied UN resolutions, international pressures and sanctions, thanks to the
support from China and divisions in the ASEAN.... Realpolitik and ground reality dictate that
recognising Burma's strategic importance, India must cultivate the junta to
regain space and time lost to China....
Sound national interest required a switch in policy designed to secure
and sanitise our strategic eastern flank, check China's reach into the Bay of
Bengal and the Andaman Sea, use Burma as a bridge to the east and to influence
internal change in Burma. India would not like to see Chinese presence,
significant as it is in North Burma and other regions, to cross the Chindwin
river. China, on the other hand, is
determined to access the Indian Ocean, especially for its land-locked Sichuan
and Yunnan provinces, secure its sea lanes and passage through Malacca Straits
and to check India's influence in Burma as well as in the Indian Ocean.... What should India do? When General Than Shwei
arrives next week, India will pull out all the stops especially economic,
technological and military.... The
military-to-military relations are a key to India's military diplomacy to wean
away Burma to the extent feasible from its dependence on China. The challenge for India is in influencing
General Than and the junta to see the writing on the wall and initiate the
process of restoration of democracy by releasing Suu Kyi while at the same time
strengthening bilateral relations....
Constructive re-engagement and not isolation of the junta, therefore, is
the way ahead. But so is patience."
BANGLADESH:
"Change In Myanmar"
The independent, English-language Daily Star
held (10/22): "Those that want to
see the implementation of democratic reforms in Myanmar will have received the
news of the sacking of Myanmar's prime minister Khin Nyunt with a great deal of
dismay. The ousted prime minister, a
more liberal and forward-looking person, credited with the formulation of the
seven-point 'road map to democracy' was in favour of a dialogue with the
leading opposition parties in Myanmar as well as for setting the NLD leader
Aung San Suu Kyi free. The unceremonious
departure of a person who was third in the Junta hierarchy is indicative of not
only an internal power struggle between the Myanmar strong man and hardliner
Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt, but also of the bleak prospect of democratic reforms
in Myanmar. The change has perhaps been
brought about by Than Shwe's compulsion to forestall any challenge to his rule
by the ousted premier, who was not only the prime minister but was also the
head of, reportedly, the most powerful government institution in Myanmar, the
military intelligence. The fact that a
hardliner has replaced Khin Nyunt has in all likelihood put paid to whatever
little chance there was of political reforms in Myanmar. Lt Gen Soe Win, the
new Prime minister, is known to favour hardline posture against the NLD. Much of Myanmar's potential has been sapped
because of its present political dispensation and reluctance of the junta to
implement political reforms. It is our hope as a neighbour and well wisher of
its people that the recent political change would hasten rather than hamper
democratic reforms in Myanmar."
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