March 15, 2005
CHECHNYA:
MASKHADOV ASSASSINATION A 'PYRRHIC VICTORY' FOR PUTIN
KEY FINDINGS
** Dalies see Putin's
"trophy" success as only a short term "boost."
** Euro papers contend
Maskhadov's killing typifies Putin's anti-negotiation stance.
** Outlets conclude
Maskhadov's death will "worsen the interminable conflict in the
Caucasus."
MAJOR THEMES
A myopic policy with no long-term payoff-- Russian officials treated Maskhadov's death as
an important public relations victory since Putin's approval rating had
dropped below 50 percent. Russian
observers acknowledged that the "heroic accomplishment of the FSB"
garnered Putin a "huge trophy" in the war on terror
just when the Kremlin chief needed a "domestic policy success." But war-weary Russian outlets, commenting on
rebel resilience, warned, "sooner or later a bent spring bounces
back." Britain's independent Financial
Times noted that while Russia's president "may enjoy his moment of
triumph...he is no closer to ending the violence." Russia's reformist Vremya Novostey
admitted the elimination of Maskhadov represented "Moscow's first big
success in the North Caucasus since Putin's re-election" but found no
"cause for euphoria."
Euro papers say negotiations are not on Putin's agenda-- "The Russians can now claim they have no
one to negotiate with," observed Sweden's liberal Dagens Nyheter,
adding that "Russia is not particularly keen on negotiations" in any
case. Russia's reformist Moskovskiy
Komsomolets said, of Maskhadov's death, "It is impossible even to
speculate on the subject of peace talks.
And that is a political success [for Putin]." Hungary's center-left Nepszabadsag
opined that given Putin's "liquidation" tactics, "sooner or
later, the world will be compelled to legitimize those Chechen politicians who
are pro-Moscow." Spain's
left-of-center El Pais complained that Maskhadov's assassination shows
that "Moscow has little intention of looking for solutions in the Caucasus
that do not involve tanks and guns."
Japan's liberal Asahi commented on Russia's foreign relations,
adding that the death of Maskhadov symbolized "Putin's determination to
reject Western interference in the matter."
Sans the 'moderate', no 'political solution' is possible-- A majority of outlets predicted that with the
"departure of the moderate Maskhadov...everything will be more
difficult." Germany's
left-of-center Die Zeit called Maskhadov the "last Mohican"
and cautioned that in his absence a "new generation of fundamentalists
will take over." Norway's newspaper
of record Aftenposten agreed that with "Maskhadov's moderate
voice...vanished...we can hear (rebel field commander) Shamil Basayev more
clearly." The UAE's
expatriate-oriented Gulf News advised that "a loss of a moderating
influence in any rebellion has often had a negative impact on both parties to
the conflict." Russian papers
remarked that the "spread of terror is halted neither by clearance
operations nor by pinpoint strikes on key figures" and that "what is
needed is an effective political strategy" to bring the "meat grinder
of war" to an end.
Prepared by Media Reaction Branch (202)
203-7888, rmrmail@state.gov
EDITORS: Patricio
Asfura-Heim
EDITOR'S NOTE: Media
Reaction reporting conveys the spectrum of foreign press sentiment. Posts select commentary to provide a
representative picture of local editorial opinion. Some commentary is taken directly from the
Internet. This report summarizes and
interprets foreign editorial opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views
of the U.S. Government. This analysis
was based on 32 reports from 13 countries over March 9 - 11, 2005. Editorial excerpts are listed from the most
recent date.
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "They Never
Learn"
Editor-in-chief Yevgeniy Kisilev commented in reformist Moskovskiye
Novosti (3/11): "Our
authorities never learn. They don't want
to see that believing myths very often leads to mistakes in politics. In 1941 they believed Germany would not
attack the Soviet Union. In 1968 they
believed Western special services were behind the Prague Spring. In 1979 they believed they had to send troops
to Afghanistan and kill its leader Amin before the Americans did. In 1983 they believed the downed Korean
passenger airliner was a spy plane. In
the late 1980s they believed (many still do) that U.S. 'agents of influence'
had a hand in Perestroika. Today, too,
they have convinced many, including themselves, that eliminating Maskhadov is a
cure-all."
"Listening To The Military"
Andrey Soldatov contended in reformist Moskovskiye Novosti
(3/11): "Basically, it doesn't
matter whether the Maskhadov killing was planned or accidental. The Russian authorities claimed
responsibility for the killing when FSB Director Nikolay Patrushev reported it
to the president and the latter commended him.
Very few governments in the world would have their special services do
such a thing.... For some time now
Russian special services have been interested in how their Israeli colleagues
do business. They like the Mossad style
of foreign operations. The topic is sure
to crop up if you are in the company of any officer from the FSB's special
assignment center for more than half an hour.
One must remember, though, that Arafat died his own death. Legend has it that Dwight Eisenhower, in the days of the Caribbean crisis, cautioned
John Kennedy against listening to the military when making a military
decision. Obviously, the Russian
President thinks differently."
"It'll Spring Back"
Yuliya Kalinina mused in youth-oriented Moskovskiy Komsomolets
(3/11): "Maskhadov's death has
closed one era and opened another.
Illusions remain only on the Russian side. The Chechens have no illusions. The current resistance leaders accept no
methods other than violence. Their aim
is to destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus and make Russia leave, so
as later to pull down the rest of the empire.
With that aim in mind, they have set up a far-flung network of
underground organizations running on private subsidies and federal budget
appropriations, with government officials in Chechnya paying a safety fee to
the militants. The situation is unlikely
to change because of the heroic accomplishment of the FSB special purpose
troops who killed Maskhadov in his underground bunker. Sooner or later a bent spring bounces
back. There is no stopping it by
eliminating the leaders of bandits. Too
bad Russian rulers don't seem to understand that."
"War Not Dead"
Ivan Sukhov wrote in reformist Vremya Novostey (3/10): "Eliminating Aslan Maskhadov has become
Moscow's first big success in the North Caucasus since Putin's
re-election. But this is no cause for
euphoria.... Shamil Beno, a former
Chechen envoy with the Russian president, says Maskhadov's death will have
'many-vector' consequences. It will give
a fresh impulse to the Islamic radicals' war, protracting it still longer. With the death of people who, like Maskhadov,
went to Soviet schools, served in the Soviet army, and read books we all read,
we lose the common background. New
leaders have never been to Moscow, St. Petersburg or Voronezh--they grew up in
the Caucasus during the war and are only familiar with the wartime
reality. Sharing no historical past with
Russia, they are not inclined to seek points of contact, which makes peace
impossible.... Presumably, Maskhadov was
the only one among the field commanders with whom talks might even have been
possible. He may not have had a large
force behind him, but he was a symbol for those involved in the war against Russia."
"The Myth"
Yuriy Sergeyev said in youth-oriented Komsomol'skaya Pravda
(3/10): "The widespread myth of the
president of a rebel republic waving an olive branch and talking about love and
peace appealed to many politicians in the West.
Some picked it up out of naiveté, others by choice. But no one could explain why Maskhadov the
liberal peacemaker did not protest against Chechnya becoming a medieval
slave-owning state or against his military attacking Daghestan when he was
president. To escape disgrace, he could
have resigned or fled the country, after all."
"A Political Victory"
Vadim Rechkalov wrote in reformist
youth-oriented Moskovskiy Komsomolets (3/10): "The Chechen terrorist underground has
suffered an irreversible loss. With the
death of Maskhadov, there is not a single politician left among the illegal
armed groups.... After his death it is
impossible even to speculate on the subject of peace talks. And that is a political success.... We won.
Whether the body is freshly killed or not, it's still a body. And that is a political victory."
"Political Strategy Needed "
Dmitriy Sevryukov opined in Tribuna RT
(3/10): "Just as before, Chechnya
remains an explosive region caught in the crossfire of tracer rounds from
automatic weapons. The guerrilla underground is spreading more and more
actively through neighbouring republics of the North Caucasus as well. It seems
that the spread of terror is halted neither by clearance operations nor by
pinpoint strikes on key figures like Maskhadov.
What is needed is an effective political strategy which will bring the
meat grinder of war to a halt."
"Ichkeria's 'Legitimate Head' Dead"
Vladimir Barinov said on the front page of reformist Gazeta
(3/9): "The 'legitimate head of
Ichkeria'--this is how he wanted to appear, at least to international
audiences--has ended ingloriously. Aslan
Maskhadov failed in his chief mission to bring peace to Chechnya. With him gone, the militants no longer have
an elected leader."
"There's No One To Replace Maskhadov"
Vadim Dubnov wrote in reformist Izvestiya (3/9): "There are no candidates for Maskhadov's
job, nor can there be any. His was a
unique position and remained legitimate for a long time. The resistance has no other 'legitimate'
leaders. Of all the known names, Basayev
is the only one left, a perfect figure to compromise the idea of talks. The separatists have no new political leaders
and are unlikely to have them for quite a while."
BRITAIN: "Cornered
Chechnya"
The independent Financial Times took this view (3/10): "The Kremlin has proclaimed the death of
Aslan Maskhadov, the rebel Chechen leader, as a victory in its fight against
terrorism. It is nothing of the
kind. Mr. Maskhadov's killing eliminates
the one Chechen commander ready to make peace overtures to Moscow. Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, may enjoy
his moment of triumph but he is no closer to ending the violence."
GERMANY: "Putin On Pyrrhus'
Tracks"
Daniel Brössler noted in center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung
(3/10): "From King Pyrrhus we got
the understanding that there are victories which should never have been
achieved. Vladimir Putin has no opponent
who could even equate the Romans, but he has to do with a few thousand
Caucasian fighters and...terrorists. He
has waged a war against them for more than five years without having achieved a
great success. But with respect to
symbols none can be measured against his latest victory, the 'destruction ' of
Aslan Maskhadov. Like any other victory,
this one will have its price, too, and we must fear that this will be a high
one. Putin knew exactly with whom he had
to deal: with a man who recognized the
hopelessness of the situation.... But
from the Kremlin point of view, the hand which Maskhadov extended was more
dangerous than an anti-tank missile. The
leader of the separatists agitated for the support of Western public opinion,
and with contacts with the organization of the mothers of Russian soldiers he
planned to exert moral pressure on Putin.
Among the Chechen leaders there is now no one with whom the Russian can
enter into talks. Only Maskhadov had
this willingness and, in addition, he was the elected Chechen president who had
the necessary authority. As of today,
more than before unscrupulous leaders like Shamil Basayev will set the
tone. It is as if Putin has cut the last
bridge. With the exception of violence
he has no more options."
"Counter Player"
Christian Schmidt-Häuer concluded in center-left weekly Die
Zeit (3/10): "Since President
Putin has won the presidential elections, Moscow has not been willing to enter
into serious talks with the Chechens.
Maskhadov wore himself out by making offers of peace and by challenging
[the Russians]. He also distanced
himself from terror and did not show solidarity for fanatic field
commanders. He was the last
Mohican. Now the generation of
fundamentalists will take over. They do
not know Russians but only occupiers.
With them Putin will get what he deserves."
"Archaic Towards Civil Society"
Klaus-Helge Donath opined in leftist die tageszeitung of
Berlin (3/10): "The government in
Moscow tries to convey the impression that the anti-terror fight is taking an
ideal course after the Kremlin was able to eliminate separatist leader
Maskhadov but the picture is deceiving.
The Kremlin replaces a policy towards Chechnya with symbols.... The spectacle surrounding Maskhadov's death
also makes clear how the effects of the Chechen war are now reaching Moscow;
not only in the form of a permanent threats by potential terrorists...but also
the form of a brutalization of forms has taken place. The term civil society has been degraded to a
mere term without having any contents....
In the long run, the survival of the Russian republic will be at
stake. In the Kremlin, no one
understands the reasons for the spiral of failures. A good friend of President Putin should tell
him this in a one-on-one talk."
"Putin's Dubious Success"
Daniel Broessler commented in center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung
of Munich (3/9): "It does not come
as huge surprise that the most wanted Chechen did not survive. Putin's intelligence head personally broke
the news to Putin and sold Maskhadov's death as a victory in the fight against
international terrorism. That is wrong
in two respects. Although some
foreigners also fought in Chechnya, Maskhadov had never been a person who
operated internationally. He fought
Russians. It is difficult to assess what
sort of terrorist means he used.
Maskhadov had always verbally distanced himself from the unscrupulous
terror leader Basayev. For a number of
reasons Maskhadov's death will not bring peace to the people in Chechnya and
Russia. The once freely elected
president wanted negotiations. He was
probably the last rebel leader, who could have had moderating effects. Although the separatists are apparently on
the defensive, Russians will not be able to destroy the logistical structure of
terrorism with military means alone.
And if a man like Maskhadov dies in a military attack, he will be reborn
in the eyes of his followers as martyr."
"The Death Of A Rebel"
Business-oriented Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf editorialized
(3/9): "The former president was
the only Chechen politician with whom one could have reached a peace agreement,
although Moscow always ruled that out.
Maskhadov had always distanced himself from terror attacks, such as the
bestial hostage-taking in the Beslan school.
His people were also desired interlocutors for the West, but Russia made
the decision long ago to hunt down all separatists and to install a loyal
leadership in Chechnya. This 'political
process' is even relatively successful.
However, even if a large part of the war-tired population come to terms
with that, it cannot be called peace."
ITALY: "Chechen Powder
Keg -- EU Should Take Action"
Aldo Forbice concluded in conservative, top-circulation syndicate Il
Resto del Carlino/La Nazione/Il Giorno (3/10): "The killing of the Chechen rebel leader
Aslan Maskhadov worsens the interminable conflict in the Caucasus. The head of the underground government was a
moderate who, thanks to his great charisma, succeeded in controlling the most
extremist groups, starting with leading terrorist Shamil Basayev.... With the departure of the moderate Maskhadov
(who was in favor of negotiating with Putin), everything will be more
difficult. And it’s simple to predict
that the hawks may prevail--one more reason why the European Union and the UN
should make their voices heard, by breaking that silent iron agreement between
the U.S. and Russia, based on the non-interference in their respective areas of
influence (Iraq and Chechnya)."
AUSTRIA: "Dead Heroes
Live Longer"
Foreign affairs writer Josef Kirchengast stated in liberal Der
Standard (3/10): "A lot of work
needs to be done in Chechnya, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who nevertheless expressed his satisfaction over the death of Aslan
Maskhadov. The Kremlin chief really
needs a domestic policy success.... For
the first time since he assumed office, his approval ratings have dropped below
fifty percent. Still, even from Moscow's
point of view, the killing of the rebel leader could turn out to be the
opposite of success. The war in
Chechnya, which paved the way for Putin's rise to the top in the Kremlin, has
long lost its popularity. Many Russians
would prefer a political solution....
With his death, Maskhadov could become far more dangerous to the Kremlin
than he was while he was alive, one of the Chechen leader's aides noted. There's definitely something to that. Extremists like Bassayev have now been presented
with a martyr, who can no longer escape their exploitation."
"War Without Rules"
Burkhard Bischof commented in centrist Die Presse
(3/10): "Maskhadov was against
exporting terrorism beyond Chechnya's borders.
He rejected waging a war against innocent civilians. He wanted to negotiate with Moscow, so as to
give the suffering Chechen people the opportunity of a future without
violence.... Now, his body is being
paraded on Russian TV like a war trophy.
So, shooting dead the perhaps only pragmatically thinking rebel leader
is supposed to be a victory? The men who
are likely to take his place probably don't know any rules of combat, not the
way the former career officer Maskhadov did....
Maskhadov's death will only further radicalize the resistance in the
Caucasus."
"The Caucasus Concerns Us All"
Jana Patsch wrote in mass-circulation Kurier (03/10): "With the 'liquidation', as Vladimir
Putin put it, of Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov, the Kremlin will achieve the
opposite of what it allegedly wants, i.e., ending the war in Chechnya. Aslan Maskhadov was a moderate
separatist. The remaining warlords are
all criminal heavyweights. T hey're getting the upper hand now, and have
already threatened to continue the fight....
Even though the Chechen rebels did not all answer to his leadership,
Maskhadov was the only personality that was respected by most of the people in
Chechnya.... Even among some Russians,
Maskhadov, who distanced himself from the fatal terrorist attacks of the last
few years, was considered a potential negotiating partner.... What's really dramatic is the fact that not
just Chechnya, but the entire Caucasus is a breeding ground for
terrorism.... The world public, however,
is looking the other way. At the
Bush-Putin summit in Bratislava in February the war in Chechnya was not even
mentioned in passing. German Chancellor
Schroeder considers Putin a genuine democrat.... A stabilization of the Caucasus seems highly
unlikely. The region remains a powder
keg, and not only for the Kremlin."
BELGIUM: "Killing
Maskhadov To Prevent Any Dialogue"
Left-of-center Le Soir opined (3/10): “After Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov’s
assassination, observers lament the death of a moderate, who seemed to be the
only one who was capable of negotiating with the Kremlin. That is probably precisely the reason why the
Russian president ordered his assassination, according to several analysts.”
"A Chance Destroyed"
Moscow correspondent Boris Toumanov wrote in independent La
Libre Belgique (3/10): “Aslan
Maskhadov might have led to a political solution of the Chechen
conflict.... For the Russian government,
this was a chance that it just destroyed.
But Vladimir Putin will henceforth be able to respond with more
assurance to those who, in Russia and in the West, criticized him, that he does
not see anyone among Chechen rebels with whom the Kremlin might negotiate.”
HUNGARY: "Death In Chechnya"
Endre Aczel held in top-circulation, center-left Nepszabadsag
(3/10): “Let Basayev come, the
well-known 'Afghan,' the well-known Islamist, the well-known mass
murderer--him, contrary to Maskhadov, the West does not accept.... Without Maskhadov, the Chechen resistance
that is said to be moderate will be left without a proponent, a credible
spokesman. Putin’s calculation is that,
sooner or later, the world will be compelled to legitimize those Chechen politicians
who are pro-Moscow.... The only thing
left to do now is to capture Basayev. As
George W. Bush said, when fighting terror, we are fighting for our own freedom,
so who could say that Putin is not a man of freedom?”
NORWAY: "Russia’s
Curse"
Newspaper-of-record Aftenposten commented (3/10): “Russia’s government and the Russian media
have no doubts. The murder of rebel
leader Aslan Maskhadov, who in fact was legally elected president of Chechnya
in 1997, is seen as a major victory and an example of how crooks get what they
deserve. This is a truth with several
modifications.... Short-term success can
easily lead to losses in the long-term....
For most Chechens, Maskhadov was still the president-elect, and a voice
they chose to listen to. The Russians
decided to shut their ears. Now Maskhadov's
moderate voice has vanished. Instead we
can hear Shamil Basayev more clearly....
He is also not interested in negotiating with Russia’s leaders on a
possible political solution in the conflict between Moscow and Chechnya. But through the liquidation of Maskhadov,
Basayev and the groups around him are left strengthened. The 'success in special operations' may prove
to be a major mistake, contribute to an increase in the suffering of the
Chechen civilian population, lead to new terrorist attacks in Russia, and cause
Russia’s political and economic development to move in the wrong
direction. We worry that the liquidation
of Maskhadov will prolong the conflict in the Caucasus. Moscow ought to worry as well.”
POLAND: "War In
Chechnya Continues"
Jerzy Haszczynski stated in centrist Rzeczpospolita
(3/9): “Aslan Maskhadov, one of the
Chechen leaders, is dead. Vladimir Putin
comments with satisfaction: there is
still much to be done in the fight with the Chechen bandits. It does not bode well for the Northern
Caucasus and all of Russia.... After
Maskhadov’s death, the choice for the Chechens...will be mostly between crazy
terrorists like Basayev, and those Chechens who joined the enemy and are
realizing the policy of the Kremlin. If
no worthy successor for Maskhadov can be found, something the Kremlin clearly
wants, then we will hear about new Chechen wars for many years to come.”
SPAIN: "Maskhadov's
Death"
Left-of-center El País editorialized (3/9): "For Putin, the news that the Chechen
leader Aslan Maskhadov has been killed by Russian troops...is
excellent.... The Russian president has
now a huge trophy in his fight against a terrorism that unites Russians...over
any other thing.... If no one can deny
Putin his antiterrorist success, there are fewer people outside of Russia who
believe that (the Russian) policy towards Chechnya is anything more than the
legitimization of the most abusive strength to serve a 'patriotism' that hides
other problems.... The Kremlin knows how
to manage problems with Chechen terrorism in a way that leads to suspicion but
without falling into bad faith.... But
Maskhadov's death, from the little we know, shows that Moscow has little
intention of looking for solutions in the Caucasus that do not involve tanks
and guns."
"Putin Combats Peace In Chechnya"
Independent El Mundo noted (3/9): "With the separatist leader Alan
Maskhadov's assassination by Russian troops, President Putin shows again to the
rest of the world that his perception of power has nothing to do with the basic
rules of democracy.... It seems that
Putin prefers to keep up Chechnya as a backyard to reaffirm its power over the
rest of Russia, taking advantage of the apparent indifference of the West in
the face of all the atrocities against human rights that are happening in the
Caucasus and under the presumption that this is Russia's 'internal matter' in
her fight against terrorism. The problem
is that assassinations such as yesterday's, far from combating terrorism,
promote it."
SWEDEN: "In The Media
Shadow"
Independent, liberal Dagens Nyheter opined (3/10): “To state that the war in Chechnya is going
on in the media shadow is an understatement.
It is easier for media to cover Iraq than Chechnya, and both Russia and
the Chechens can take ‘credit’ for that.
Uncontrolled violence from both sides has scared away every
observer.... After the death of Aslan
Maskhadov the Russians now can claim they have no one to negotiate with. However, Russia is not particularly keen on
negotiations. To the Russian government
the issue is fighting terrorism and nothing else.... Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a country on the
verge of returning to the state that was prevalent during Soviet times. The media are controlled by the regime and
thereby lack credibility. Rumors and
conspiracy theories flourish, and secretiveness is becoming
second-nature.... Vladimir Putin wants
to write Russia’s history his way and wants to handle the fight against
terrorism his way. Simultaneously he
claims that Russia should take part in the international community just like
another big country among other democracies.
But this equation does not work.”
"Putin’s Pyrrhic Victory"
Conservative Svenska Dagbladet noted
(3/10): “The situation in Chechnya has
deteriorated after the Russian security service killed former president and
rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov. President
Putin describes this as a victory for the hard line, but it is nothing but yet
another Pyrrhic victory. It is not the
beginning of the end but rather the start of a development that will likely
result in more terrorist actions like the one in Beslan.... Against this background it is high time for
the EU and the U.S. to take a renewed stance on Chechnya and the old ‘political
solution’ formula. It won't be enough to
pretend nothing has happened now when President Vladimir Putin has clearly
demonstrated that he is uninterested in a political solution.”
MIDDLE EAST
UAE: "A Moderate Voice
Silenced Forever"
The expatriate-oriented, English-language Gulf News
editorialized (Internet version, 3/10):
"Maskhadov’s killing could further destabilize the Caucasus and
Russia. Military solutions to separatist
conflicts anywhere have been few and far between. And a loss of a moderating influence in any
rebellion has often had a negative impact on both parties to the conflict. As it is already being predicted in
Chechnya. While Chechen leader Aslan
Maskhadov's death at the hands of Russian troops is seen as a boost to Russian
President Vladimir Putin's tough stance on the Chechen rebellion, it is also seen
as emboldening both the radical rebels and Kremlin hawks. Maskhadov, post-Soviet Chechnya's only
elected president, was a lone voice among the separatists in advocating a
political solution to the decade-old conflict.
His passing clearly strengthens the hand of Shamil Basayev, a hardliner behind
such horrific terror acts as the murder of school children in Beslan. More worrisome for the West, which had always
urged the Kremlin to keep negotiating with Maskhadov, is the very real danger
of greater destabilization of the Caucasus and Russia as a whole. Even as Moscow seeks to contain the Chechen
rebellion, it will do well to also seek out any moderates that have not
abandoned the search for a political solution.
No one in Chechnya, Russia or anywhere else will want another
Beslan."
"Killing An Opportunity"
The expatriate-oriented, English-language Gulf Today
commented (Internet version, 3/10):
"Aslan Maskhadov's killing has taken the Chechen rebellion towards
a crucial point. As the main pillar of
the struggle for independence against Russia, Maskhadov had a unifying role
among the rebels. His absence could
change the pace of the rebellion. The
question is in which direction would this change take place. The killing would give immense relief to
Moscow. Many see this as Russian President
Vladimir Putin's landmark achievement in his war against the Chechen
rebels. Maskhadov was for Putin a sworn
enemy who tested the success of his strong-arm policy against the rebellion. However, most observers would agree that the
killing of the rebel leader has seriously harmed the possibility of a
negotiated solution to the crisis....
Maskhadov was Moscow's best chance to attempt a peaceful end to the
Chechen rebellion. The Kremlin's
definition of the rebellion as an act of terrorism destroyed such a
possibility. Unfortunately, Putin
continues to believe that his strategy of military pressure while placing a
Moscow-friendly government in Grozny would somehow wear down the rebellion.... There is no winner in this contest of guns
and suicide bombs. The Chechens deserve
an impartial political listening from Moscow.
As long as Putin avoids this path, there is little chance for
peace."
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
JAPAN: "Peace Slipping
Away In Chechnya"
Liberal Asahi commented (3/10): "Chechen separatists have refused to
hold talks with Moscow and have instead hinted at more violence in the face of
the recent killing of Chechen rebel leader Maskhadov by Russian security forces. The death of Maskhadov, known for his attempts
to explore the possibility of dialogue between the Putin government and rebel
guerrillas, is bound to make peaceful settlement of the Chechen conflict even
more difficult.... The West had
considered Maskhadov the only agent who could possibly help resolve the Chechen
dispute. His death symbolizes Putin's
determination to reject Western interference in the matter. Increased violence between Chechen guerrillas
and Russian security agents is likely to heighten tension between Russia and
the West. Putin, however, should be
aware that large-scale terrorist acts against Russian interests are also likely
to damage his government's prestige in the eyes of the international
community."
"Killing Of Chechen Leader May Backfire"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri observed (3/10): "In killing moderate Chechen rebel
leader Maskhadov, the Putin government is trying to follow a model set by the
Bush administration in which the U.S. leader stopped his crumbling support by arresting
elusive Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Putin's desire to strengthen his political ground, however, might
backfire by triggering massive counterattacks from Chechen guerrillas."
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